New Orleans Pelicans at San Antonio Spurs, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors SA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pelicans- Zion WilliamsonPoints33
- Brandon IngramAssists6
- Jonas ValanciunasRebounds9
Spurs- Devin VassellPoints28
- Tre JonesAssists7
- Jeremy SochanRebounds16
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game114–113
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter114–113
- Q40.0Spurs offensive team rebound114–113
- Q41.0Devin Vassell misses 30-foot three point pullup jump shot114–113
- Q43.1Naji Marshall enters the game for Trey Murphy III114–113
- Q43.1Dyson Daniels enters the game for CJ McCollum114–113
- Q43.1Doug McDermott enters the game for Julian Champagnie114–113
- Q43.1Spurs Full timeout114–113
- Q43.1Zion Williamson makes two point shot (Jose Alvarado assists)114–113
- Q48.1Jose Alvarado defensive rebound112–113
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q45:12Devin Vassell makes 28-foot three point shot (Tre Jones assists)NO 102 – 105 SA · SA 45% → 64% +19SA 45% → 64%+19 pts
- Q41:58Tre Jones makes two point shot (Devin Vassell assists)NO 108 – 110 SA · SA 47% → 67% +20SA 47% → 67%+20 pts
- Q41:33CJ McCollum makes two point shot (Dyson Daniels assists)NO 110 – 110 SA · NO 30% → 53% +22NO 30% → 53%+22 pts
- Q428.1Zion Williamson makes dunk (Brandon Ingram assists)NO 112 – 113 SA · NO 6% → 31% +25NO 6% → 31%+25 pts
- Q43.1Zion Williamson makes two point shot (Jose Alvarado assists)NO 114 – 113 SA · NO 6% → 95% +89NO 6% → 95%+89 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Pelicans 65%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 65.2% of 388 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- NO 65%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NO -6.5
- NO 74%
- Fair odds
- NO -186
- SA +186 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NO 118.5 – 113.8 SA
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NO | SA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1545 | 1369 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +55 | +16 | NO: Stronger than its recent lineups · SA: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | NO +180 Elo | NO 73.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NO 64.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NO 65.0% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| NO | Stat | SA |
|---|---|---|
| 13th of 30116.5 | Points scored | 112.624th of 30 |
| 14th of 30112.9 | Points allowed | 121.126th of 30 |
| 10th of 30+3.6 | Margin | −8.527th of 30 |
| 13th of 30115.7 | Offense rating | 108.328th of 30 |
| 10th of 30112.1 | Defense rating | 116.524th of 30 |
| 17th of 30100.4 | Pace | 103.45th of 30 |
| 16th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 3–723rd of 30 |
| 8th of 3013–11 | Road vs home | 5–1928th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Pelicans
+55 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Spurs
+16 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
NO 2–0 SA in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 2.