Atlanta Hawks at Boston Celtics, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors BOS; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Hawks- Saddiq BeyPoints25
- Trae YoungAssists10
- Jalen JohnsonRebounds15
Celtics- Kristaps PorzingisPoints31
- Al HorfordAssists8
- Jayson TatumRebounds9
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game117–125
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter117–125
- Q47.0Sam Hauser makes free throw 2 of 2117–125
- Q47.0Sam Hauser makes free throw 1 of 2117–124
- Q47.0Bogdan Bogdanovic personal take foul117–123
- Q48.1Bogdan Bogdanovic personal take foul117–123
- Q415.0Onyeka Okongwu makes 1-foot dunk (Trae Young assists)117–123
- Q418.0Sam Hauser enters the game for Kristaps Porzingis115–123
- Q418.0Hawks Full timeout115–123
- Q419.1Kristaps Porzingis makes 27-foot three point jumper (Jayson Tatum assists)115–123
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q139.1Trae Young makes 27-foot three pointerATL 35 – 31 BOS · ATL 24% → 32% +8ATL 24% → 32%+8 pts
- Q12.1Jayson Tatum makes 26-foot three pointerATL 37 – 35 BOS · BOS 64% → 72% +9BOS 64% → 72%+9 pts
- Q343.1Payton Pritchard makes 27-foot three point jumper (Jaylen Brown assists)ATL 90 – 95 BOS · BOS 73% → 82% +9BOS 73% → 82%+9 pts
- Q411:36Jalen Johnson makes 27-foot three point shot (Trae Young assists)ATL 93 – 95 BOS · ATL 18% → 27% +9ATL 18% → 27%+9 pts
- Q411:18Derrick White makes 26-foot three point jumper (Jayson Tatum assists)ATL 93 – 98 BOS · BOS 73% → 82% +10BOS 73% → 82%+10 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Celtics 79%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 75–80% have won 75.8% of 293 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 79%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS -11.5
- BOS 86%
- Fair odds
- BOS -385
- ATL +385 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ATL 116.6 – 126.9 BOS
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ATL | BOS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1433 | 1635 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −11 | +69 | ATL: Missing Dejounte Murray −16 · BOS: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +318 Elo | BOS 86.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 78.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 79.4% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| ATL | Stat | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd of 30121.6 | Points scored | 120.35th of 30 |
| 30th of 30123.9 | Points allowed | 110.75th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30−2.3 | Margin | +9.61st of 30 |
| 8th of 30116.7 | Offense rating | 119.21st of 30 |
| 28th of 30118.9 | Defense rating | 109.63rd of 30 |
| 4th of 30103.5 | Pace | 99.921st of 30 |
| 10th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 7–34th of 30 |
| 19th of 309–14 | Road vs home | 23–31st of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Hawks
−11 Elo- Dejounte Murray lower back tightness−16 Elo
Celtics
+69 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
ATL 0–1 BOS in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.