Golden State Warriors at Atlanta Hawks, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors ATL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Warriors- Stephen CurryPoints60
- Draymond GreenAssists8
- Brandin PodziemskiRebounds11
Hawks- Trae YoungPoints35
- Jalen JohnsonAssists8
- Onyeka OkongwuRebounds16
Last plays
- OT0.0End of Game134–141
- OT0.0End of the 1st Overtime134–141
- OT12.1Brandin Podziemski makes driving layup134–141
- OT20.1Jalen Johnson makes free throw 1 of 1132–141
- OT20.1Brandin Podziemski shooting foul132–140
- OT20.1Jalen Johnson makes driving layup (Trae Young assists)132–140
- OT25.2Dejounte Murray defensive rebound132–138
- OT28.0Lester Quinones misses free throw 2 of 2132–138
- OT28.0Lester Quinones makes free throw 1 of 2132–138
- OT28.0Dejounte Murray loose ball foul131–138
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q43:51Stephen Curry makes 27-foot three pointerGS 113 – 113 ATL · GS 29% → 50% +21GS 29% → 50%+21 pts
- Q43:22Stephen Curry makes 26-foot three pointerGS 116 – 115 ATL · GS 34% → 57% +23GS 34% → 57%+23 pts
- Q41:46Stephen Curry makes 25-foot step back jumpshot (Draymond Green assists)GS 121 – 117 ATL · GS 60% → 86% +26GS 60% → 86%+26 pts
- Q414.0Stephen Curry makes 11-foot driving floating jump shotGS 123 – 121 ATL · GS 50% → 93% +43GS 50% → 93%+43 pts
- Q44.1Dejounte Murray makes 14-foot pullup jump shot (Jalen Johnson assists)GS 123 – 123 ATL · ATL <1% → 50% +50ATL <1% → 50%+50 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Hawks 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 49.4% of 342 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- ATL 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- GS -1.5
- ATL 45%
- Fair odds
- ATL -107
- GS +107 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- GS 124.6 – 125.1 ATL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | GS | ATL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1510 | 1426 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | −40 | ATL and GS on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | +21 | +18 | GS: Missing Dario Saric −4 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups · ATL: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −12 | — | GS crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | GS +38 Elo | GS 55.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATL 52.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATL 51.6% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| GS | Stat | ATL |
|---|---|---|
| 7th of 30118.6 | Points scored | 120.83rd of 30 |
| 21st of 30118.4 | Points allowed | 123.229th of 30 |
| 16th of 30+0.3 | Margin | −2.423rd of 30 |
| 11th of 30115.8 | Offense rating | 116.110th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30115.6 | Defense rating | 118.528th of 30 |
| 12th of 30101.1 | Pace | 103.44th of 30 |
| 18th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 6–48th of 30 |
| 17th of 308–11 | Road vs home | 11–1323rd of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Warriors
+21 Elo- Dario Saric injury/illness−4 Elo
Hawks
+18 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
GS 1–0 ATL in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.