LA Clippers at Atlanta Hawks, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors ATL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Clippers- Kawhi LeonardPoints36
- James HardenAssists10
- Mason PlumleeRebounds9
Hawks- De'Andre HunterPoints27
- Trae YoungAssists12
- De'Andre HunterRebounds7
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game149–144
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter149–144
- Q41.0James Harden defensive rebound149–144
- Q43.0Bogdan Bogdanovic misses 28-foot three point jumper149–144
- Q48.1James Harden makes free throw 2 of 2149–144
- Q48.1James Harden makes free throw 1 of 2148–144
- Q48.1Trae Young personal take foul147–144
- Q426.1Bogdan Bogdanovic makes 23-foot three point jumper (Trae Young assists)147–144
- Q428.0Hawks offensive team rebound147–141
- Q431.0Trae Young misses 23-foot step back jumpshot147–141
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q47:44James Harden makes 25-foot three pointerLAC 114 – 112 ATL · LAC 51% → 66% +15LAC 51% → 66%+15 pts
- Q46:32Dejounte Murray makes 25-foot three pointerLAC 119 – 118 ATL · ATL 24% → 39% +15ATL 24% → 39%+15 pts
- Q46:10Paul George makes 25-foot three point jumper (Kawhi Leonard assists)LAC 122 – 118 ATL · LAC 61% → 76% +15LAC 61% → 76%+15 pts
- Q45:50Dejounte Murray makes 24-foot three point jumper (Trae Young assists)LAC 122 – 121 ATL · ATL 24% → 39% +16ATL 24% → 39%+16 pts
- Q43:12Saddiq Bey makes 26-foot three point jumper (Dejounte Murray assists)LAC 129 – 126 ATL · ATL 10% → 24% +15ATL 10% → 24%+15 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Clippers 64%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- LAC 64%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAC -7.5
- LAC 76%
- Fair odds
- LAC -177
- ATL +177 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAC 123.4 – 119.1 ATL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAC | ATL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1638 | 1436 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | — | LAC on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | +75 | −2 | LAC: Stronger than its recent lineups · ATL: Usual rotation (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | LAC +203 Elo | LAC 76.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAC 62.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAC 63.9% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| LAC | Stat | ATL |
|---|---|---|
| 10th of 30118.1 | Points scored | 121.23rd of 30 |
| 8th of 30111.7 | Points allowed | 123.429th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30+6.5 | Margin | −2.223rd of 30 |
| 4th of 30118.5 | Offense rating | 116.210th of 30 |
| 9th of 30112.0 | Defense rating | 118.427th of 30 |
| 25th of 3099.5 | Pace | 103.54th of 30 |
| 3rd of 308–2 | Last 10 | 6–48th of 30 |
| 7th of 3014–11 | Road vs home | 12–1322nd of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Clippers
+75 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Hawks
−2 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.