LA Clippers at Detroit Pistons, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DET; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Clippers- Kawhi LeonardPoints33
- Russell WestbrookAssists9
- Mason PlumleeRebounds9
Pistons- Jaden IveyPoints28
- Cade CunninghamAssists11
- Jalen DurenRebounds13
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game136–125
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter136–125
- Q413.1Ausar Thompson makes 1-foot dunk (Jaden Ivey assists)136–125
- Q418.0Terance Mann bad pass (Kevin Knox II steals)136–123
- Q441.1Jaden Ivey makes driving layup136–123
- Q450.0Mason Plumlee out of bounds bad pass turnover136–121
- Q41:04James Wiseman makes free throw 1 of 1136–121
- Q41:04Brandon Boston Jr. shooting foul136–120
- Q41:04James Wiseman makes layup (Marcus Sasser assists)136–120
- Q41:10James Wiseman defensive rebound136–118
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q28:22Norman Powell makes 25-foot three point jumper (Paul George assists)LAC 36 – 42 DET · LAC 50% → 57% +8LAC 50% → 57%+8 pts
- Q26:15Marcus Sasser makes 29-foot three point jumper (Cade Cunningham assists)LAC 39 – 48 DET · DET 44% → 52% +8DET 44% → 52%+8 pts
- Q25:37Amir Coffey makes 23-foot three point jumper (Norman Powell assists)LAC 44 – 48 DET · LAC 53% → 61% +8LAC 53% → 61%+8 pts
- Q34:31Bojan Bogdanovic makes 25-foot three point jumper (Cade Cunningham assists)LAC 89 – 86 DET · DET 17% → 25% +8DET 17% → 25%+8 pts
- Q33:27Russell Westbrook makes 25-foot three point jumper (Norman Powell assists)LAC 92 – 88 DET · LAC 69% → 78% +9LAC 69% → 78%+9 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Clippers 75%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 75–80% have won 75.8% of 293 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- LAC 75%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAC -11
- LAC 86%
- Fair odds
- LAC -308
- DET +308 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAC 122.5 – 113.9 DET
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAC | DET | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1632 | 1349 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +69 | +6 | LAC: Stronger than its recent lineups · DET: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | LAC +310 Elo | LAC 85.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAC 74.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAC 75.5% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| LAC | Stat | DET |
|---|---|---|
| 10th of 30118.1 | Points scored | 112.623rd of 30 |
| 8th of 30111.7 | Points allowed | 122.327th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30+6.3 | Margin | −9.629th of 30 |
| 4th of 30118.3 | Offense rating | 109.526th of 30 |
| 10th of 30111.9 | Defense rating | 118.829th of 30 |
| 25th of 3099.6 | Pace | 102.47th of 30 |
| 3rd of 308–2 | Last 10 | 3–723rd of 30 |
| 12th of 3012–11 | Road vs home | 4–2129th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Clippers
+69 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Pistons
+6 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.