LA Clippers at Miami Heat, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MIA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Clippers- Kawhi LeonardPoints25
- James HardenAssists11
- Kawhi LeonardRebounds11
Heat- Jimmy Butler IIIPoints21
- Terry RozierAssists5
- Bam AdebayoRebounds13
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game103–95
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter103–95
- Q41.1Kawhi Leonard makes free throw 2 of 2103–95
- Q41.1Kawhi Leonard makes free throw 1 of 2102–95
- Q41.1Caleb Martin personal take foul101–95
- Q41.1Kawhi Leonard defensive rebound101–95
- Q42.1Jimmy Butler misses 24-foot three point jumper101–95
- Q45.1Jimmy Butler offensive rebound101–95
- Q45.1Amir Coffey blocks Jimmy Butler 's 23-foot three point jumper101–95
- Q47.2Heat Full timeout101–95
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q411:14Jaime Jaquez Jr. makes 26-foot three point jumper (Terry Rozier assists)LAC 69 – 70 MIA · MIA 34% → 47% +12MIA 34% → 47%+12 pts
- Q410:24Haywood Highsmith makes two point shot (Terry Rozier assists)LAC 71 – 72 MIA · MIA 38% → 47% +9MIA 38% → 47%+9 pts
- Q49:52James Harden makes 24-foot step back jumpshotLAC 74 – 72 MIA · LAC 53% → 66% +13LAC 53% → 66%+13 pts
- Q48:25Paul George makes 24-foot three point jumper (James Harden assists)LAC 80 – 74 MIA · LAC 70% → 82% +11LAC 70% → 82%+11 pts
- Q47:51Norman Powell makes 24-foot three point jumper (Paul George assists)LAC 83 – 76 MIA · LAC 75% → 86% +11LAC 75% → 86%+11 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Clippers 65%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 65.2% of 388 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- LAC 65%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAC -7.5
- LAC 77%
- Fair odds
- LAC -188
- MIA +188 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAC 114.2 – 109.4 MIA
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAC | MIA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1635 | 1473 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +86 | +3 | LAC: Stronger than its recent lineups · MIA: Usual rotation (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | LAC +209 Elo | LAC 76.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAC 63.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAC 65.3% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| LAC | Stat | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| 9th of 30118.5 | Points scored | 110.427th of 30 |
| 8th of 30112.0 | Points allowed | 111.47th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30+6.4 | Margin | −0.920th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30118.6 | Offense rating | 111.922nd of 30 |
| 11th of 30112.2 | Defense rating | 112.913th of 30 |
| 25th of 3099.7 | Pace | 98.428th of 30 |
| 3rd of 308–2 | Last 10 | 3–723rd of 30 |
| 9th of 3013–11 | Road vs home | 13–1118th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Clippers
+86 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Heat
+3 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
LAC 1–0 MIA in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.