Orlando Magic at Miami Heat, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MIA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Magic- Paolo BancheroPoints23
- Paolo BancheroAssists7
- Paolo BancheroRebounds9
Heat- Jimmy Butler IIIPoints23
- Jimmy Butler IIIAssists8
- Jimmy Butler IIIRebounds8
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game95–121
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter95–121
- Q411.2Anthony Black out of bounds bad pass turnover95–121
- Q418.0Anthony Black defensive rebound95–121
- Q421.0Jaime Jaquez Jr. misses 27-foot three point jumper95–121
- Q444.1Duncan Robinson defensive rebound95–121
- Q448.1Caleb Houstan misses 25-foot three point jumper95–121
- Q41:01Goga Bitadze defensive rebound95–121
- Q41:04Orlando Robinson misses 26-foot three point jumper95–121
- Q41:13Goga Bitadze bad pass (Jaime Jaquez Jr. steals)95–121
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q23.0Jonathan Isaac makes 23-foot three point jumper (Paolo Banchero assists)ORL 49 – 56 MIA · ORL 25% → 32% +7ORL 25% → 32%+7 pts
- Q311:22Wendell Carter Jr. makes 27-foot three point jumper (Paolo Banchero assists)ORL 52 – 58 MIA · ORL 27% → 35% +8ORL 27% → 35%+8 pts
- Q310:06Wendell Carter Jr. makes 24-foot three point shot (Markelle Fultz assists)ORL 55 – 60 MIA · ORL 29% → 37% +8ORL 29% → 37%+8 pts
- Q39:50Terry Rozier makes 24-foot step back jumpshot (Bam Adebayo assists)ORL 55 – 63 MIA · MIA 63% → 72% +8MIA 63% → 72%+8 pts
- Q38:54Paolo Banchero makes 25-foot running pullup jump shot (Jalen Suggs assists)ORL 58 – 65 MIA · ORL 23% → 31% +8ORL 23% → 31%+8 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Magic 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 49.4% of 342 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- ORL 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ORL -2
- ORL 59%
- Fair odds
- ORL -112
- MIA +112 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ORL 106.3 – 105.4 MIA
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ORL | MIA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1543 | 1469 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +13 | −11 | ORL: Stronger than its recent lineups · MIA: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | ORL +62 Elo | ORL 58.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ORL 52.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ORL 52.9% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| ORL | Stat | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| 25th of 30111.6 | Points scored | 110.127th of 30 |
| 5th of 30110.6 | Points allowed | 111.27th of 30 |
| 14th of 30+1.0 | Margin | −1.120th of 30 |
| 24th of 30110.9 | Offense rating | 111.822nd of 30 |
| 4th of 30109.9 | Defense rating | 112.813th of 30 |
| 18th of 30100.0 | Pace | 98.328th of 30 |
| 11th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 2–827th of 30 |
| 17th of 3012–16 | Road vs home | 13–1219th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Magic
+13 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Heat
−11 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
ORL 1–2 MIA in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 3.