Orlando Magic at Detroit Pistons, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DET; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Magic- Franz WagnerPoints38
- Paolo BancheroAssists7
- Paolo BancheroRebounds6
Pistons- Cade CunninghamPoints18
- Cade CunninghamAssists7
- Ausar ThompsonRebounds7
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game111–99
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter111–99
- Q411.0Magic defensive team rebound111–99
- Q411.1Bojan Bogdanovic misses 19-foot step back jumpshot111–99
- Q426.2Franz Wagner makes driving layup (Paolo Banchero assists)111–99
- Q451.1(00:51.4) [Magic] REF-INITIATED REVIEW (REPLAY SUPPORTS CALL)109–99
- Q451.1Bojan Bogdanovic makes 19-foot step back jumpshot (Cade Cunningham assists)109–99
- Q457.1Paolo Banchero bad pass (Cade Cunningham steals)109–97
- Q41:13Jonathan Isaac defensive rebound109–97
- Q41:16Cade Cunningham misses driving layup109–97
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q411:21Joe Ingles makes 27-foot three point jumper (Gary Harris assists)ORL 81 – 78 DET · ORL 56% → 68% +12ORL 56% → 68%+12 pts
- Q410:52Marcus Sasser makes 23-foot three point jumper (Alec Burks assists)ORL 81 – 81 DET · DET 32% → 44% +12DET 32% → 44%+12 pts
- Q410:36Gary Harris makes 24-foot three point jumper (Moritz Wagner assists)ORL 84 – 81 DET · ORL 56% → 68% +13ORL 56% → 68%+13 pts
- Q48:20Gary Harris makes 23-foot three point jumper (Franz Wagner assists)ORL 93 – 87 DET · ORL 69% → 81% +12ORL 69% → 81%+12 pts
- Q48:03Marcus Sasser makes 25-foot step back jumpshotORL 93 – 90 DET · DET 19% → 30% +12DET 19% → 30%+12 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Magic 62%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- ORL 62%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ORL -5
- ORL 70%
- Fair odds
- ORL -166
- DET +166 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ORL 116.1 – 112.2 DET
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ORL | DET | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1537 | 1346 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +6 | +5 | ORL: Stronger than its recent lineups · DET: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −12 | — | ORL crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | ORL +144 Elo | ORL 69.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ORL 61.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ORL 62.4% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| ORL | Stat | DET |
|---|---|---|
| 25th of 30111.6 | Points scored | 112.923rd of 30 |
| 5th of 30110.8 | Points allowed | 122.527th of 30 |
| 15th of 30+0.7 | Margin | −9.729th of 30 |
| 24th of 30110.8 | Offense rating | 109.825th of 30 |
| 4th of 30110.0 | Defense rating | 119.229th of 30 |
| 19th of 30100.1 | Pace | 102.37th of 30 |
| 13th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 3–724th of 30 |
| 17th of 3011–16 | Road vs home | 4–2229th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Magic
+6 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Pistons
+5 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
ORL 1–0 DET in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.