San Antonio Spurs at Miami Heat, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MIA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Spurs- Devin VassellPoints19
- Tre JonesAssists6
- Victor WembanyamaRebounds13
Heat- Tyler HerroPoints24
- Jimmy Butler IIIAssists11
- Jimmy Butler IIIRebounds11
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game104–116
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter104–116
- Q416.1Blake Wesley makes free throw 2 of 2104–116
- Q416.1Spurs offensive team rebound103–116
- Q416.1Blake Wesley misses free throw 1 of 2103–116
- Q416.1Orlando Robinson shooting foul103–116
- Q425.0Josh Richardson makes free throw 2 of 2103–116
- Q425.0Josh Richardson makes free throw 1 of 2103–115
- Q425.0Blake Wesley personal foul103–114
- Q428.1Josh Richardson defensive rebound103–114
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q37:45Terry Rozier makes 23-foot three point jumper (Jimmy Butler assists)SA 64 – 64 MIA · MIA 51% → 60% +10MIA 51% → 60%+10 pts
- Q36:50Tyler Herro makes 25-foot three pointerSA 66 – 67 MIA · MIA 53% → 63% +10MIA 53% → 63%+10 pts
- Q35:04Tre Jones makes 25-foot three point jumper (Jeremy Sochan assists)SA 69 – 70 MIA · SA 28% → 37% +9SA 28% → 37%+9 pts
- Q34:22Tyler Herro makes 25-foot three point shot (Caleb Martin assists)SA 69 – 73 MIA · MIA 63% → 72% +10MIA 63% → 72%+10 pts
- Q31:24Malaki Branham makes 22-foot three point jumper (Devin Vassell assists)SA 77 – 78 MIA · SA 27% → 38% +11SA 27% → 38%+11 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Heat 66%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 65.2% of 388 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- MIA 66%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIA -5
- MIA 69%
- Fair odds
- MIA -191
- SA +191 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SA 109.0 – 113.9 MIA
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SA | MIA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1364 | 1494 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | — | −40 | MIA on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | +11 | +15 | SA: Stronger than its recent lineups · MIA: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −12 | — | SA crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | MIA +142 Elo | MIA 69.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIA 65.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIA 65.7% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| SA | Stat | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| 24th of 30112.3 | Points scored | 110.427th of 30 |
| 26th of 30120.9 | Points allowed | 110.97th of 30 |
| 27th of 30−8.5 | Margin | −0.518th of 30 |
| 28th of 30108.2 | Offense rating | 112.022nd of 30 |
| 25th of 30116.4 | Defense rating | 112.511th of 30 |
| 5th of 30103.3 | Pace | 98.328th of 30 |
| 24th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 3–724th of 30 |
| 28th of 305–19 | Road vs home | 14–1219th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Spurs
+11 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Heat
+15 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
SA 0–1 MIA in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.