Denver Nuggets at Milwaukee Bucks, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MIL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Nuggets- Nikola JokicPoints29
- Nikola JokicAssists8
- Nikola JokicRebounds12
Bucks- Giannis AntetokounmpoPoints36
- Giannis AntetokounmpoAssists5
- Giannis AntetokounmpoRebounds18
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game95–112
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter95–112
- Q420.2Andre Jackson Jr. defensive rebound95–112
- Q420.2Julian Strawther misses 29-foot three point jumper95–112
- Q425.0Braxton Key defensive rebound95–112
- Q427.1Thanasis Antetokounmpo misses driving layup95–112
- Q447.1Collin Gillespie makes 28-foot three point jumper (Julian Strawther assists)95–112
- Q457.18 second turnover92–112
- Q41:05Chris Livingston defensive rebound92–112
- Q41:06Braxton Key misses free throw 1 of 192–112
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q110:43Brook Lopez makes 26-foot three pointer (Giannis Antetokounmpo assists)DEN 0 – 3 MIL · MIL 55% → 61% +6MIL 55% → 61%+6 pts
- Q15:19Brook Lopez makes 26-foot three point jumper (Damian Lillard assists)DEN 8 – 16 MIL · MIL 66% → 72% +6MIL 66% → 72%+6 pts
- Q15:07Reggie Jackson makes 23-foot three point jumper (Nikola Jokic assists)DEN 11 – 16 MIL · DEN 28% → 34% +6DEN 28% → 34%+6 pts
- Q12:06Malik Beasley makes 23-foot three point jumper (Bobby Portis assists)DEN 21 – 21 MIL · MIL 48% → 55% +7MIL 48% → 55%+7 pts
- Q11:31Malik Beasley makes 23-foot three point jumper (Patrick Beverley assists)DEN 23 – 24 MIL · MIL 50% → 57% +7MIL 50% → 57%+7 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Bucks 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- MIL 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIL -2
- MIL 58%
- Fair odds
- MIL -123
- DEN +123 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DEN 115.5 – 117.1 MIL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DEN | MIL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1518 | 1540 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +24 | −2 | DEN: Stronger than its recent lineups · MIL: Usual rotation (from the box score) |
| Travel | −24 | — | DEN crossed 2 time zones heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | MIL +56 Elo | MIL 58.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIL 54.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIL 55.2% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| DEN | Stat | MIL |
|---|---|---|
| 18th of 30114.6 | Points scored | 122.92nd of 30 |
| 6th of 30111.0 | Points allowed | 119.323rd of 30 |
| 9th of 30+3.6 | Margin | +3.610th of 30 |
| 8th of 30116.7 | Offense rating | 118.24th of 30 |
| 13th of 30113.0 | Defense rating | 114.818th of 30 |
| 29th of 3098.2 | Pace | 103.24th of 30 |
| 4th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 4–618th of 30 |
| 11th of 3015–13 | Road vs home | 22–65th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Nuggets
+24 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Bucks
−2 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
DEN 1–0 MIL in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.