Denver Nuggets at Sacramento Kings, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors SAC; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Nuggets- Nikola JokicPoints23
- Nikola JokicAssists7
- Nikola JokicRebounds8
Kings- Malik MonkPoints23
- Domantas SabonisAssists10
- Domantas SabonisRebounds17
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game106–135
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter106–135
- Q417.0Colby Jones defensive rebound106–135
- Q419.0Collin Gillespie misses free throw 2 of 2106–135
- Q419.0Collin Gillespie makes free throw 1 of 2106–135
- Q419.0Kessler Edwards shooting foul105–135
- Q424.1Jay Huff defensive rebound105–135
- Q426.0Colby Jones misses driving layup105–135
- Q440.1Colby Jones defensive rebound105–135
- Q443.2Justin Holiday misses 24-foot three point jumper105–135
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q25:31Kevin Huerter makes 25-foot three point jumper (Domantas Sabonis assists)DEN 46 – 50 SAC · SAC 55% → 63% +8SAC 55% → 63%+8 pts
- Q25:07Julian Strawther makes 22-foot three point shot (Reggie Jackson assists)DEN 49 – 50 SAC · DEN 37% → 45% +8DEN 37% → 45%+8 pts
- Q24:57Keegan Murray makes 25-foot three point jumper (Domantas Sabonis assists)DEN 49 – 53 SAC · SAC 55% → 63% +8SAC 55% → 63%+8 pts
- Q22:53De'Aaron Fox makes 25-foot step back jumpshot (Domantas Sabonis assists)DEN 53 – 60 SAC · SAC 63% → 71% +8SAC 63% → 71%+8 pts
- Q21:37Domantas Sabonis makes 24-foot three point jumper (De'Aaron Fox assists)DEN 57 – 65 SAC · SAC 66% → 74% +7SAC 66% → 74%+7 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Kings 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 49.4% of 342 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- SAC 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DEN -0.5
- SAC 47%
- Fair odds
- SAC -115
- DEN +115 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DEN 114.4 – 115.5 SAC
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DEN | SAC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1541 | 1475 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | — | DEN on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | +52 | +23 | DEN: Missing Michael Porter Jr. −14 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups · SAC: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | DEN +18 Elo | DEN 52.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SAC 54.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SAC 53.5% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| DEN | Stat | SAC |
|---|---|---|
| 18th of 30114.8 | Points scored | 118.49th of 30 |
| 4th of 30110.5 | Points allowed | 118.122nd of 30 |
| 9th of 30+4.3 | Margin | +0.216th of 30 |
| 7th of 30117.0 | Offense rating | 115.414th of 30 |
| 13th of 30112.7 | Defense rating | 115.120th of 30 |
| 29th of 3098.0 | Pace | 101.610th of 30 |
| 2nd of 308–2 | Last 10 | 6–48th of 30 |
| 9th of 3015–12 | Road vs home | 14–914th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Nuggets
+52 Elo- Michael Porter Jr. right knee tendinitis−14 Elo
Kings
+23 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
DEN 0–1 SAC in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.