Detroit Pistons at Sacramento Kings, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors SAC; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pistons- Jaden IveyPoints37
- Killian HayesAssists9
- Jalen DurenRebounds15
Kings- Domantas SabonisPoints30
- Malik MonkAssists10
- Domantas SabonisRebounds12
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game133–120
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter133–120
- Q45.0shot clock turnover133–120
- Q429.1Ausar Thompson defensive rebound133–120
- Q431.0Ausar Thompson blocks Davion Mitchell 's 8-foot hook shot133–120
- Q442.1Ausar Thompson makes 1-foot dunk (Jaden Ivey assists)133–120
- Q449.0De'Aaron Fox makes 11-foot two point shot131–120
- Q449.1De'Aaron Fox offensive rebound131–118
- Q453.0De'Aaron Fox misses 24-foot three point jumper131–118
- Q41:03Alec Burks makes free throw 2 of 2131–118
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q48:12Jaden Ivey makes 27-foot three point jumper (Jalen Duren assists)DET 108 – 105 SAC · DET 38% → 53% +15DET 38% → 53%+15 pts
- Q46:32Alec Burks makes 26-foot three point jumper (Marcus Sasser assists)DET 111 – 107 SAC · DET 45% → 62% +17DET 45% → 62%+17 pts
- Q45:54Jaden Ivey makes 26-foot three pointerDET 114 – 109 SAC · DET 52% → 69% +17DET 52% → 69%+17 pts
- Q43:14Jaden Ivey makes 26-foot three point jumper (Alec Burks assists)DET 121 – 113 SAC · DET 79% → 92% +13DET 79% → 92%+13 pts
- Q42:59Malik Monk makes 25-foot step back jumpshotDET 121 – 116 SAC · SAC 7% → 19% +13SAC 7% → 19%+13 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Kings 76%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 75–80% have won 75.8% of 293 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- SAC 76%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SAC -8
- SAC 79%
- Fair odds
- SAC -318
- DET +318 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DET 116.1 – 124.9 SAC
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DET | SAC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1340 | 1499 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −6 | +27 | DET: Missing Cade Cunningham −10 · SAC: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | SAC +228 Elo | SAC 78.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SAC 75.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SAC 76.1% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| DET | Stat | SAC |
|---|---|---|
| 23rd of 30112.6 | Points scored | 118.39th of 30 |
| 27th of 30122.3 | Points allowed | 117.820th of 30 |
| 29th of 30−9.7 | Margin | +0.515th of 30 |
| 25th of 30109.7 | Offense rating | 115.314th of 30 |
| 29th of 30119.1 | Defense rating | 114.817th of 30 |
| 7th of 30102.2 | Pace | 101.610th of 30 |
| 24th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 6–48th of 30 |
| 30th of 302–20 | Road vs home | 14–814th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Pistons
−6 Elo- Cade Cunningham left knee injury management−10 Elo
Kings
+27 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
DET 0–1 SAC in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.