Portland Trail Blazers at Denver Nuggets, NBA forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DEN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Trail Blazers- Deandre AytonPoints27
- Anfernee SimonsAssists9
- Deandre AytonRebounds9
Nuggets- Nikola JokicPoints29
- Jamal MurrayAssists10
- Nikola JokicRebounds8
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game103–112
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter103–112
- Q414.1shot clock turnover103–112
- Q438.1Toumani Camara lost ball turnover (Peyton Watson steals)103–112
- Q449.2Toumani Camara defensive rebound103–112
- Q452.1Peyton Watson misses 24-foot three point jumper103–112
- Q41:11Anfernee Simons makes 1-foot two point shot (Deandre Ayton assists)103–112
- Q41:20Nikola Jokic bad pass (Deandre Ayton steals)101–112
- Q41:40Anfernee Simons makes free throw 2 of 2101–112
- Q41:40Anfernee Simons makes free throw 1 of 2100–112
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q24:13Toumani Camara makes 23-foot three point jumper (Anfernee Simons assists)POR 52 – 44 DEN · POR 40% → 48% +8POR 40% → 48%+8 pts
- Q21:40Anfernee Simons makes 25-foot three point shot (Scoot Henderson assists)POR 61 – 54 DEN · POR 39% → 48% +8POR 39% → 48%+8 pts
- Q32:31Kentavious Caldwell-Pope makes 26-foot three point jumper (Peyton Watson assists)POR 84 – 79 DEN · DEN 37% → 48% +11DEN 37% → 48%+11 pts
- Q31:12Jamal Murray makes 25-foot three point jumper (Nikola Jokic assists)POR 84 – 82 DEN · DEN 46% → 58% +12DEN 46% → 58%+12 pts
- Q410:59Peyton Watson makes 26-foot three pointerPOR 84 – 91 DEN · DEN 79% → 87% +8DEN 79% → 87%+8 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Nuggets 78%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 75–80% have won 75.8% of 293 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- DEN 78%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DEN -9.5
- DEN 82%
- Fair odds
- DEN -351
- POR +351 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- POR 105.4 – 114.9 DEN
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | POR | DEN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1417 | 1529 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −48 | +65 | POR: Missing Jerami Grant −10, Moses Brown −4 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups · DEN: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | DEN +261 Elo | DEN 81.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DEN 77.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DEN 77.8% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| POR | Stat | DEN |
|---|---|---|
| 28th of 30108.5 | Points scored | 114.816th of 30 |
| 17th of 30116.7 | Points allowed | 110.76th of 30 |
| 26th of 30−8.2 | Margin | +4.18th of 30 |
| 29th of 30107.1 | Offense rating | 116.97th of 30 |
| 20th of 30115.3 | Defense rating | 112.712th of 30 |
| 18th of 30100.1 | Pace | 98.229th of 30 |
| 12th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 7–35th of 30 |
| 27th of 306–21 | Road vs home | 20–42nd of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Trail Blazers
−48 Elo- Jerami Grant lower back tightness−10 Elo
- Moses Brown fractured left wrist−4 Elo
Nuggets
+65 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
POR 0–1 DEN in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.