Portland Trail Blazers at Denver Nuggets, NBA forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DEN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Trail Blazers- Scoot HendersonPoints30
- Malcolm BrogdonAssists6
- Malcolm BrogdonRebounds8
Nuggets- Nikola JokicPoints27
- Nikola JokicAssists12
- Nikola JokicRebounds22
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game108–120
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter108–120
- Q44.2shot clock turnover108–120
- Q428.0Toumani Camara bad pass (Jay Huff steals)108–120
- Q435.2Collin Gillespie makes 11-foot driving floating jump shot108–120
- Q444.1Ibou Badji enters the game for Malcolm Brogdon108–118
- Q444.1Jabari Walker enters the game for Deandre Ayton108–118
- Q444.1Kris Murray enters the game for Anfernee Simons108–118
- Q444.1Justin Minaya enters the game for Scoot Henderson108–118
- Q444.1Collin Gillespie enters the game for Jamal Murray108–118
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q26:10Nikola Jokic makes 25-foot step back jumpshotPOR 41 – 43 DEN · DEN 67% → 74% +7DEN 67% → 74%+7 pts
- Q24:36Aaron Gordon makes 23-foot three point jumper (Reggie Jackson assists)POR 47 – 48 DEN · DEN 64% → 71% +7DEN 64% → 71%+7 pts
- Q21:51Anfernee Simons makes 25-foot running pullup jump shotPOR 55 – 54 DEN · POR 27% → 34% +7POR 27% → 34%+7 pts
- Q243.1Jamal Murray makes 25-foot step back jumpshot (Nikola Jokic assists)POR 55 – 59 DEN · DEN 70% → 77% +7DEN 70% → 77%+7 pts
- Q333.0Anfernee Simons makes 27-foot step back jumpshotPOR 84 – 90 DEN · POR 11% → 17% +7POR 11% → 17%+7 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Nuggets 74%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.3% of 360 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- DEN 74%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DEN -8
- DEN 78%
- Fair odds
- DEN -286
- POR +286 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- POR 105.9 – 113.8 DEN
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | POR | DEN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1422 | 1525 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −19 | +51 | POR: Missing Jerami Grant −8 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups · DEN: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −12 | — | POR crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | DEN +222 Elo | DEN 78.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DEN 73.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DEN 74.1% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| POR | Stat | DEN |
|---|---|---|
| 29th of 30108.5 | Points scored | 114.717th of 30 |
| 17th of 30116.7 | Points allowed | 110.84th of 30 |
| 26th of 30−8.2 | Margin | +3.98th of 30 |
| 29th of 30106.9 | Offense rating | 116.67th of 30 |
| 20th of 30114.9 | Defense rating | 112.612th of 30 |
| 18th of 30100.3 | Pace | 98.429th of 30 |
| 13th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 7–34th of 30 |
| 27th of 306–20 | Road vs home | 19–42nd of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Trail Blazers
−19 Elo- Jerami Grant lower back tightness−8 Elo
Nuggets
+51 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.