Denver Nuggets at Oklahoma City Thunder, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors OKC; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Nuggets- Aaron GordonPoints16
- Aaron GordonAssists7
- Aaron GordonRebounds13
Thunder- Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderPoints34
- Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderAssists5
- Chet HolmgrenRebounds13
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game100–105
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter100–105
- Q42.1Reggie Jackson makes two point shot100–105
- Q414.1Reggie Jackson enters the game for Peyton Watson98–105
- Q414.1Josh Giddey enters the game for Jaylin Williams98–105
- Q414.1Shai Gilgeous-Alexander makes free throw 2 of 298–105
- Q414.1Shai Gilgeous-Alexander makes free throw 1 of 298–104
- Q414.1Kentavious Caldwell-Pope personal foul98–103
- Q416.0Thunder Full timeout98–103
- Q416.1Aaron Gordon lane violation98–103
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q352.1Shai Gilgeous-Alexander makes 27-foot step back jumpshotDEN 70 – 70 OKC · OKC 48% → 59% +12OKC 48% → 59%+12 pts
- Q315.1Chet Holmgren makes 25-foot three point jumper (Shai Gilgeous-Alexander assists)DEN 72 – 73 OKC · OKC 51% → 63% +12OKC 51% → 63%+12 pts
- Q44:41Michael Porter Jr. makes 24-foot three point jumper (Kentavious Caldwell-Pope assists)DEN 86 – 90 OKC · DEN 5% → 21% +16DEN 5% → 21%+16 pts
- Q452.1Jamal Murray makes free throw 2 of 2DEN 97 – 98 OKC · DEN 20% → 33% +13DEN 20% → 33%+13 pts
- Q422.1Chet Holmgren makes 26-foot three point jumper (Josh Giddey assists)DEN 97 – 101 OKC · OKC 74% → >99% +25OKC 74% → >99%+25 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Thunder 68%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 65.2% of 388 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- OKC 68%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- OKC -5.5
- OKC 71%
- Fair odds
- OKC -211
- DEN +211 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DEN 111.0 – 116.6 OKC
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DEN | OKC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1529 | 1567 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −42 | +28 | DEN: Weaker than its recent lineups · OKC: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −12 | — | DEN crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | OKC +156 Elo | OKC 71.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | OKC 67.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | OKC 67.9% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| DEN | Stat | OKC |
|---|---|---|
| 16th of 30115.0 | Points scored | 120.83rd of 30 |
| 4th of 30110.9 | Points allowed | 112.913th of 30 |
| 8th of 30+4.1 | Margin | +7.92nd of 30 |
| 7th of 30116.8 | Offense rating | 118.35th of 30 |
| 12th of 30112.6 | Defense rating | 110.67th of 30 |
| 28th of 3098.5 | Pace | 101.510th of 30 |
| 6th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 6–49th of 30 |
| 7th of 3014–11 | Road vs home | 17–67th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Nuggets
−42 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Thunder
+28 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
DEN 1–2 OKC in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 3.