Denver Nuggets at Los Angeles Lakers, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors LAL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Nuggets- Jamal MurrayPoints29
- Jamal MurrayAssists11
- Nikola JokicRebounds13
Lakers- Anthony DavisPoints32
- Austin ReavesAssists10
- Anthony DavisRebounds9
Last plays
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter114–106
- Q410.0Nikola Jokic defensive rebound114–106
- Q412.2Anthony Davis misses 25-foot three point pullup jump shot114–106
- Q420.1shot clock turnover114–106
- Q444.1LeBron James makes driving layup114–106
- Q452.1Michael Porter Jr. makes dunk (Jamal Murray assists)114–104
- Q455.1Nikola Jokic defensive rebound112–104
- Q458.0Austin Reaves misses driving layup112–104
- Q41:05Skylar Mays enters the game for Jaxson Hayes112–104
- Q41:05Lakers Full timeout112–104
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q46:16Michael Porter Jr. makes 23-foot three point jumper (Nikola Jokic assists)DEN 97 – 94 LAL · DEN 50% → 67% +17DEN 50% → 67%+17 pts
- Q43:31Aaron Gordon makes 2-foot driving dunk (Jamal Murray assists)DEN 102 – 100 LAL · DEN 50% → 65% +15DEN 50% → 65%+15 pts
- Q42:58Peyton Watson makes 1-foot dunk (Nikola Jokic assists)DEN 104 – 101 LAL · DEN 58% → 74% +15DEN 58% → 74%+15 pts
- Q42:18Austin Reaves makes 26-foot three point jumper (Taurean Prince assists)DEN 104 – 104 LAL · LAL 24% → 50% +26LAL 24% → 50%+26 pts
- Q41:56Jamal Murray makes 26-foot three pointer (Nikola Jokic assists)DEN 107 – 104 LAL · DEN 50% → 78% +28DEN 50% → 78%+28 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Nuggets 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 49.4% of 342 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- DEN 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DEN -0.5
- DEN 52%
- Fair odds
- DEN -102
- LAL +102 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DEN 115.6 – 115.4 LAL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DEN | LAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1532 | 1532 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +66 | +17 | DEN: Stronger than its recent lineups · LAL: Missing D'Angelo Russell −20 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | DEN +14 Elo | DEN 52.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DEN 50.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DEN 50.6% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| DEN | Stat | LAL |
|---|---|---|
| 17th of 30114.8 | Points scored | 116.414th of 30 |
| 4th of 30110.6 | Points allowed | 117.018th of 30 |
| 9th of 30+4.2 | Margin | −0.619th of 30 |
| 7th of 30117.0 | Offense rating | 112.321st of 30 |
| 13th of 30112.7 | Defense rating | 112.914th of 30 |
| 29th of 3098.0 | Pace | 102.86th of 30 |
| 4th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 6–48th of 30 |
| 11th of 3014–12 | Road vs home | 17–810th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Nuggets
+66 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Lakers
+17 Elo- D'Angelo Russell injury/illness−20 Elo
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
DEN 1–0 LAL in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.