Los Angeles Lakers at Charlotte Hornets, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CHA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Lakers- D'Angelo RussellPoints28
- Anthony DavisAssists11
- Anthony DavisRebounds15
Hornets- Miles BridgesPoints41
- Ish SmithAssists6
- Nick RichardsRebounds9
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game124–118
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter124–118
- Q41.1Miles Bridges makes driving dunk (Ish Smith assists)124–118
- Q47.1Anthony Davis makes free throw 2 of 2124–116
- Q47.1Anthony Davis makes free throw 1 of 2123–116
- Q47.1Ish Smith personal foul122–116
- Q47.1Anthony Davis defensive rebound122–116
- Q49.1Miles Bridges misses 25-foot three point jumper122–116
- Q414.0LeBron James lost ball turnover (Ish Smith steals)122–116
- Q417.1LeBron James defensive rebound122–116
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q19:51Brandon Miller makes 27-foot step back jumpshot (Miles Bridges assists)LAL 4 – 11 CHA · CHA 27% → 33% +6CHA 27% → 33%+6 pts
- Q42:48Brandon Miller makes 25-foot three point jumper (Miles Bridges assists)LAL 115 – 110 CHA · CHA 3% → 10% +7CHA 3% → 10%+7 pts
- Q42:21Anthony Davis makes 2-foot dunk (D'Angelo Russell assists)LAL 117 – 110 CHA · LAL 91% → 97% +5LAL 91% → 97%+5 pts
- Q42:06Brandon Miller makes 25-foot three pointerLAL 117 – 113 CHA · CHA 3% → 12% +9CHA 3% → 12%+9 pts
- Q41:42LeBron James makes 2-foot layup (D'Angelo Russell assists)LAL 119 – 113 CHA · LAL 90% → 97% +7LAL 90% → 97%+7 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Lakers 80%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 75–80% have won 75.8% of 293 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- LAL 80%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAL -11.5
- LAL 87%
- Fair odds
- LAL -396
- CHA +396 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAL 121.9 – 111.4 CHA
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAL | CHA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1530 | 1317 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | — | −40 | CHA on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | +25 | −85 | LAL: Stronger than its recent lineups · CHA: Missing Frank Ntilikina −5 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | LAL +326 Elo | LAL 86.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAL 78.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAL 79.9% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| LAL | Stat | CHA |
|---|---|---|
| 14th of 30116.2 | Points scored | 108.329th of 30 |
| 18th of 30116.9 | Points allowed | 120.325th of 30 |
| 18th of 30−0.7 | Margin | −11.930th of 30 |
| 20th of 30112.3 | Offense rating | 108.128th of 30 |
| 14th of 30113.0 | Defense rating | 120.030th of 30 |
| 6th of 30102.7 | Pace | 99.724th of 30 |
| 8th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 2–827th of 30 |
| 22nd of 309–17 | Road vs home | 5–1927th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Lakers
+25 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Hornets
−85 Elo- Frank Ntilikina right hip impingement−5 Elo
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
LAL 1–0 CHA in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.