Charlotte Hornets at Oklahoma City Thunder, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors OKC; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Hornets- Brandon MillerPoints28
- Brandon MillerAssists4
- Nick RichardsRebounds11
Thunder- Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderPoints31
- Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderAssists9
- Jaylin WilliamsRebounds8
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game106–126
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter106–126
- Q422.1shot clock turnover106–126
- Q441.0Olivier Sarr defensive rebound106–126
- Q445.0James Bouknight misses 22-foot three point jumper106–126
- Q455.1JT Thor defensive rebound106–126
- Q459.1Olivier Sarr misses 22-foot three point jumper106–126
- Q41:17James Bouknight makes 25-foot step back jumpshot106–126
- Q41:28Aleksej Pokusevski makes 25-foot jump bank shot (Lindy Waters III assists)103–126
- Q41:44Olivier Sarr defensive rebound103–123
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q111:14Chet Holmgren makes 27-foot three point jumper (Shai Gilgeous-Alexander assists)CHA 0 – 5 OKC · OKC 85% → 88% +3OKC 85% → 88%+3 pts
- Q19:31Brandon Miller makes 26-foot three point jumper (Miles Bridges assists)CHA 3 – 5 OKC · CHA 12% → 16% +4CHA 12% → 16%+4 pts
- Q18:48Cason Wallace makes 25-foot three point shot (Shai Gilgeous-Alexander assists)CHA 3 – 10 OKC · OKC 87% → 90% +3OKC 87% → 90%+3 pts
- Q16:11Luguentz Dort makes 25-foot three point jumper (Chet Holmgren assists)CHA 7 – 17 OKC · OKC 90% → 92% +3OKC 90% → 92%+3 pts
- Q16:00Cody Martin makes 24-foot three pointerCHA 10 – 17 OKC · CHA 8% → 10% +3CHA 8% → 10%+3 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Thunder 82%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 80–85% have won 81.1% of 286 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- OKC 82%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- OKC -14
- OKC 90%
- Fair odds
- OKC -463
- CHA +463 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHA 109.0 – 120.6 OKC
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHA | OKC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1323 | 1571 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −77 | +26 | CHA: Weaker than its recent lineups · OKC: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | OKC +386 Elo | OKC 90.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | OKC 81.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | OKC 82.2% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| CHA | Stat | OKC |
|---|---|---|
| 28th of 30108.6 | Points scored | 120.44th of 30 |
| 25th of 30120.3 | Points allowed | 112.612th of 30 |
| 30th of 30−11.7 | Margin | +7.82nd of 30 |
| 27th of 30108.3 | Offense rating | 118.15th of 30 |
| 30th of 30120.0 | Defense rating | 110.56th of 30 |
| 24th of 3099.7 | Pace | 101.411th of 30 |
| 28th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 6–48th of 30 |
| 28th of 305–18 | Road vs home | 18–67th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Hornets
−77 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Thunder
+26 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.