Indiana Pacers at Charlotte Hornets, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CHA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pacers- Pascal SiakamPoints25
- Pascal SiakamAssists9
- Myles TurnerRebounds10
Hornets- Brandon MillerPoints35
- Ish SmithAssists4
- Nick RichardsRebounds10
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game115–99
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter115–99
- Q413.1Bryce McGowens makes free throw 2 of 2115–99
- Q413.1Bryce McGowens makes free throw 1 of 2115–98
- Q413.1Jarace Walker shooting foul115–97
- Q422.0JT Thor defensive rebound115–97
- Q425.0Ben Sheppard misses 22-foot three point jumper115–97
- Q427.1Isaiah Jackson offensive rebound115–97
- Q429.0Jarace Walker misses 25-foot three point jumper115–97
- Q445.2JT Thor makes driving layup (Bryce McGowens assists)115–97
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q111:43Aaron Nesmith makes 26-foot three point jumper (Andrew Nembhard assists)IND 3 – 0 CHA · IND 75% → 80% +5IND 75% → 80%+5 pts
- Q311:26Brandon Miller makes 32-foot three point shot (Ish Smith assists)IND 55 – 49 CHA · CHA 13% → 18% +5CHA 13% → 18%+5 pts
- Q311:04Brandon Miller makes 29-foot three point jumper (Miles Bridges assists)IND 57 – 52 CHA · CHA 14% → 20% +6CHA 14% → 20%+6 pts
- Q38:33Ish Smith makes 26-foot three pointer (Nick Richards assists)IND 63 – 59 CHA · CHA 16% → 22% +6CHA 16% → 22%+6 pts
- Q37:58Aaron Nesmith makes 24-foot three point jumper (Myles Turner assists)IND 69 – 59 CHA · IND 84% → 89% +5IND 84% → 89%+5 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Pacers 75%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 75–80% have won 75.8% of 293 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- IND 75%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- IND -10.5
- IND 85%
- Fair odds
- IND -306
- CHA +306 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- IND 124.0 – 115.5 CHA
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | IND | CHA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1523 | 1321 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +42 | −80 | IND: Stronger than its recent lineups · CHA: Missing Frank Ntilikina −5 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | — | −12 | CHA crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | IND +300 Elo | IND 84.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | IND 74.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | IND 75.3% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| IND | Stat | CHA |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 30124.1 | Points scored | 108.528th of 30 |
| 28th of 30122.8 | Points allowed | 120.425th of 30 |
| 13th of 30+1.2 | Margin | −11.930th of 30 |
| 4th of 30118.5 | Offense rating | 108.227th of 30 |
| 26th of 30117.4 | Defense rating | 120.130th of 30 |
| 1st of 30104.7 | Pace | 99.824th of 30 |
| 18th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 2–828th of 30 |
| 16th of 3011–13 | Road vs home | 5–1826th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Pacers
+42 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Hornets
−80 Elo- Frank Ntilikina right hip impingement−5 Elo
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
IND 1–1 CHA in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.