Minnesota Timberwolves at Milwaukee Bucks, NBA forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MIL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Timberwolves- Anthony EdwardsPoints26
- Anthony EdwardsAssists9
- Rudy GobertRebounds11
Bucks- AJ GreenPoints27
- Pat ConnaughtonAssists9
- Bobby PortisRebounds9
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game129–105
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter129–105
- Q40.1Wendell Moore Jr. defensive rebound129–105
- Q42.1Andre Jackson Jr. misses driving floating jump shot129–105
- Q410.1AJ Green defensive rebound129–105
- Q413.1Wendell Moore Jr. misses driving floating jump shot129–105
- Q422.1Luka Garza defensive rebound129–105
- Q425.1Thanasis Antetokounmpo misses layup129–105
- Q448.1Leonard Miller makes two point shot129–105
- Q449.1Leonard Miller offensive rebound127–105
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q14:41Karl-Anthony Towns makes 25-foot three point jumper (Anthony Edwards assists)MIN 19 – 18 MIL · MIN 55% → 61% +7MIN 55% → 61%+7 pts
- Q146.1Anthony Edwards makes 26-foot three point jumper (Kyle Anderson assists)MIN 28 – 24 MIL · MIN 61% → 68% +7MIN 61% → 68%+7 pts
- Q210:44AJ Green makes 26-foot three point jumper (Jae Crowder assists)MIN 32 – 32 MIL · MIL 35% → 42% +7MIL 35% → 42%+7 pts
- Q210:00Naz Reid makes 27-foot three point jumper (Mike Conley assists)MIN 35 – 32 MIL · MIN 58% → 65% +7MIN 58% → 65%+7 pts
- Q28:46Nickeil Alexander-Walker makes 28-foot three point jumper (Mike Conley assists)MIN 38 – 34 MIL · MIN 61% → 68% +7MIN 61% → 68%+7 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Timberwolves 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN -3
- MIN 63%
- Fair odds
- MIN -150
- MIL +150 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIN 116.8 – 113.8 MIL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIN | MIL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1585 | 1546 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +47 | −28 | MIN: Stronger than its recent lineups · MIL: Missing Damian Lillard −54 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | — | −12 | MIL crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | MIN +89 Elo | MIN 62.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 59.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 60.0% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| MIN | Stat | MIL |
|---|---|---|
| 22nd of 30113.1 | Points scored | 123.32nd of 30 |
| 1st of 30107.1 | Points allowed | 119.824th of 30 |
| 4th of 30+6.0 | Margin | +3.510th of 30 |
| 18th of 30113.1 | Offense rating | 118.25th of 30 |
| 1st of 30107.2 | Defense rating | 114.818th of 30 |
| 26th of 3099.4 | Pace | 103.63rd of 30 |
| 13th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 30 |
| 6th of 3016–11 | Road vs home | 21–53rd of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Timberwolves
+47 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Bucks
−28 Elo- Damian Lillard injury/illness−54 Elo
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.