Charlotte Hornets at Milwaukee Bucks, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MIL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Hornets- Nick RichardsPoints16
- Cody MartinAssists5
- Nick RichardsRebounds11
Bucks- Damian LillardPoints26
- Damian LillardAssists8
- Giannis AntetokounmpoRebounds14
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game84–120
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter84–120
- Q49.1shot clock turnover84–120
- Q433.1Bryce McGowens makes free throw 2 of 284–120
- Q433.1Hornets offensive team rebound83–120
- Q433.1Bryce McGowens misses free throw 1 of 283–120
- Q433.1Hornets Full timeout83–120
- Q433.1MarJon Beauchamp personal foul83–120
- Q440.1Nathan Mensah defensive rebound83–120
- Q444.1AJ Green misses 26-foot three point jumper83–120
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q110:43Miles Bridges makes 26-foot three pointer (Brandon Miller assists)CHA 3 – 2 MIL · CHA 24% → 29% +5CHA 24% → 29%+5 pts
- Q19:12Malik Beasley makes 28-foot three point jumper (Damian Lillard assists)CHA 6 – 7 MIL · MIL 69% → 74% +5MIL 69% → 74%+5 pts
- Q18:09Damian Lillard makes 26-foot step back jumpshotCHA 6 – 12 MIL · MIL 78% → 82% +5MIL 78% → 82%+5 pts
- Q13:59Miles Bridges makes 26-foot three point jumper (Brandon Miller assists)CHA 17 – 23 MIL · CHA 14% → 18% +4CHA 14% → 18%+4 pts
- Q25:17Malik Beasley makes 25-foot three point jumper (Damian Lillard assists)CHA 27 – 46 MIL · MIL 91% → 96% +5MIL 91% → 96%+5 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Bucks 73%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.3% of 360 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- MIL 73%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIL -10
- MIL 83%
- Fair odds
- MIL -274
- CHA +274 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHA 115.0 – 122.6 MIL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHA | MIL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1311 | 1533 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | — | −40 | MIL on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | −63 | −7 | CHA: Missing Davis Bertans −3, Tre Mann −2 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups · MIL: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | MIL +274 Elo | MIL 82.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIL 72.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIL 73.3% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| CHA | Stat | MIL |
|---|---|---|
| 28th of 30108.7 | Points scored | 123.02nd of 30 |
| 25th of 30120.4 | Points allowed | 120.024th of 30 |
| 30th of 30−11.7 | Margin | +3.011th of 30 |
| 27th of 30108.4 | Offense rating | 118.25th of 30 |
| 30th of 30120.1 | Defense rating | 115.320th of 30 |
| 24th of 3099.8 | Pace | 103.44th of 30 |
| 30th of 301–9 | Last 10 | 4–618th of 30 |
| 27th of 305–19 | Road vs home | 21–65th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Hornets
−63 Elo- Davis Bertans trade pending−3 Elo
- Tre Mann trade pending−2 Elo
Bucks
−7 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
CHA 0–1 MIL in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.