Toronto Raptors at Charlotte Hornets, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CHA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Raptors- RJ BarrettPoints23
- RJ BarrettAssists5
- Jakob PoeltlRebounds12
Hornets- Miles BridgesPoints45
- Cody MartinAssists8
- Miles BridgesRebounds8
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game123–117
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter123–117
- Q42.1Scottie Barnes defensive rebound123–117
- Q45.1Brandon Miller misses 23-foot three point shot123–117
- Q47.1Nick Richards offensive rebound123–117
- Q410.0Miles Bridges misses 25-foot three point pullup jump shot123–117
- Q418.1Miles Bridges defensive rebound123–117
- Q420.1Dennis Schroder misses free throw 2 of 2123–117
- Q420.1Dennis Schroder makes free throw 1 of 2123–117
- Q420.1Brandon Miller personal foul122–117
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q47:09Gradey Dick makes 25-foot three point jumper (RJ Barrett assists)TOR 104 – 101 CHA · TOR 52% → 68% +16TOR 52% → 68%+16 pts
- Q45:15Brandon Miller makes 25-foot three point jumper (Nick Smith Jr. assists)TOR 108 – 110 CHA · CHA 42% → 60% +19CHA 42% → 60%+19 pts
- Q44:45Miles Bridges makes 27-foot three point jumper (Cody Martin assists)TOR 110 – 113 CHA · CHA 48% → 67% +19CHA 48% → 67%+19 pts
- Q42:33RJ Barrett makes 23-foot three point jumper (Dennis Schroder assists)TOR 116 – 115 CHA · TOR 34% → 60% +26TOR 34% → 60%+26 pts
- Q42:00Immanuel Quickley makes 3-foot two point shot (Dennis Schroder assists)TOR 118 – 115 CHA · TOR 61% → 79% +17TOR 61% → 79%+17 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Raptors 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- TOR 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TOR -4
- TOR 66%
- Fair odds
- TOR -129
- CHA +129 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TOR 116.8 – 114.9 CHA
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TOR | CHA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1419 | 1316 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −22 | −83 | TOR: Weaker than its recent lineups · CHA: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −12 | — | TOR crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | TOR +116 Elo | TOR 66.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TOR 55.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TOR 56.3% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| TOR | Stat | CHA |
|---|---|---|
| 19th of 30114.3 | Points scored | 108.528th of 30 |
| 19th of 30117.8 | Points allowed | 120.325th of 30 |
| 24th of 30−3.5 | Margin | −11.830th of 30 |
| 19th of 30112.8 | Offense rating | 108.128th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30116.2 | Defense rating | 119.930th of 30 |
| 17th of 30100.4 | Pace | 99.923rd of 30 |
| 28th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 1–930th of 30 |
| 24th of 307–20 | Road vs home | 5–2027th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Raptors
−22 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Hornets
−83 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
TOR 1–1 CHA in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.