Toronto Raptors at Oklahoma City Thunder, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors OKC; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Raptors- RJ BarrettPoints23
- Immanuel QuickleyAssists11
- Jakob PoeltlRebounds12
Thunder- Josh GiddeyPoints24
- Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderAssists14
- Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderRebounds9
Last plays
- 2OT0.0End of Game127–135
- 2OT0.0End of the 2nd Overtime127–135
- 2OT3.1Thunder defensive team rebound127–135
- 2OT3.1Dennis Schroder misses 26-foot three point jumper127–135
- 2OT11.0Shai Gilgeous-Alexander makes dunk127–135
- 2OT19.1Luguentz Dort defensive rebound127–133
- 2OT19.1Gary Trent Jr. misses 24-foot three point jumper127–133
- 2OT21.1Scottie Barnes offensive rebound127–133
- 2OT23.1Immanuel Quickley misses two point shot127–133
- 2OT31.0Josh Giddey makes free throw 1 of 1127–133
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q42:36Dennis Schroder makes 27-foot three point jumper (Immanuel Quickley assists)TOR 106 – 105 OKC · TOR 28% → 53% +25TOR 28% → 53%+25 pts
- Q42:18Josh Giddey makes 24-foot three point jumper (Shai Gilgeous-Alexander assists)TOR 106 – 108 OKC · OKC 46% → 73% +27OKC 46% → 73%+27 pts
- Q41:09Immanuel Quickley makes driving layupTOR 110 – 108 OKC · TOR 46% → 72% +26TOR 46% → 72%+26 pts
- Q44.1Aaron Wiggins makes 2-foot layup (Josh Giddey assists)TOR 110 – 110 OKC · OKC <1% → 51% +51OKC <1% → 51%+51 pts
- OT56.0Shai Gilgeous-Alexander makes 25-foot step back jumpshot (Aaron Wiggins assists)TOR 118 – 118 OKC · OKC 15% → 53% +38OKC 15% → 53%+38 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Thunder 73%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.3% of 360 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- OKC 73%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- OKC -7.5
- OKC 78%
- Fair odds
- OKC -269
- TOR +269 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TOR 113.6 – 121.1 OKC
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TOR | OKC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1430 | 1573 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −9 | +27 | TOR: Weaker than its recent lineups · OKC: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | OKC +215 Elo | OKC 77.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | OKC 72.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | OKC 72.9% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| TOR | Stat | OKC |
|---|---|---|
| 20th of 30114.3 | Points scored | 120.64th of 30 |
| 19th of 30117.0 | Points allowed | 112.510th of 30 |
| 24th of 30−2.7 | Margin | +8.02nd of 30 |
| 19th of 30112.9 | Offense rating | 118.25th of 30 |
| 21st of 30115.6 | Defense rating | 110.35th of 30 |
| 16th of 30100.7 | Pace | 101.411th of 30 |
| 27th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 7–34th of 30 |
| 24th of 307–18 | Road vs home | 19–66th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Raptors
−9 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Thunder
+27 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.