Toronto Raptors at New Orleans Pelicans, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NO; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Raptors- Gradey DickPoints22
- Immanuel QuickleyAssists6
- Jakob PoeltlRebounds9
Pelicans- Brandon IngramPoints41
- Brandon IngramAssists9
- Jonas ValanciunasRebounds12
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game100–138
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter100–138
- Q40.0(00:00) [Raptors] REF-INITIATED REVIEW (REPLAY SUPPORTS CALL)100–138
- Q420.1Chris Boucher makes 16-foot pullup jump shot100–138
- Q426.1Naji Marshall inbound turnover98–138
- Q426.1Garrett Temple makes dunk98–138
- Q429.1Naji Marshall lost ball turnover (Garrett Temple steals)96–138
- Q442.1Gradey Dick makes two point shot (Jordan Nwora assists)96–138
- Q447.1Chris Boucher defensive rebound94–138
- Q450.1Naji Marshall misses 22-foot three point pullup jump shot94–138
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q111:41Jakob Poeltl makes 1-foot layup (Scottie Barnes assists)TOR 2 – 0 NO · TOR 23% → 26% +3TOR 23% → 26%+3 pts
- Q111:29Brandon Ingram makes 16-foot pullup jump shot (CJ McCollum assists)TOR 2 – 2 NO · NO 74% → 77% +3NO 74% → 77%+3 pts
- Q111:00CJ McCollum makes 27-foot three point jumper (Brandon Ingram assists)TOR 2 – 5 NO · NO 77% → 82% +4NO 77% → 82%+4 pts
- Q110:03Brandon Ingram makes 25-foot three point jumper (Zion Williamson assists)TOR 2 – 10 NO · NO 84% → 88% +4NO 84% → 88%+4 pts
- Q18:31CJ McCollum makes 26-foot step back jumpshot (Zion Williamson assists)TOR 8 – 15 NO · NO 83% → 86% +4NO 83% → 86%+4 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Pelicans 77%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 75–80% have won 75.8% of 293 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- NO 77%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NO -9
- NO 81%
- Fair odds
- NO -342
- TOR +342 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TOR 111.9 – 121.3 NO
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TOR | NO | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1427 | 1547 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | — | TOR on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | −12 | +48 | TOR: Weaker than its recent lineups · NO: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | NO +257 Elo | NO 81.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NO 76.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NO 77.4% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| TOR | Stat | NO |
|---|---|---|
| 19th of 30114.6 | Points scored | 116.413th of 30 |
| 19th of 30117.3 | Points allowed | 112.912th of 30 |
| 24th of 30−2.8 | Margin | +3.610th of 30 |
| 19th of 30113.0 | Offense rating | 115.613th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30115.7 | Defense rating | 112.19th of 30 |
| 17th of 30100.4 | Pace | 100.516th of 30 |
| 27th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 5–511th of 30 |
| 24th of 307–19 | Road vs home | 14–1016th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Raptors
−12 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Pelicans
+48 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.