Houston Rockets at Memphis Grizzlies, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MEM; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rockets- Amen ThompsonPoints19
- Alperen SengunAssists6
- Amen ThompsonRebounds12
Grizzlies- GG JacksonPoints20
- Vince Williams Jr.Assists7
- GG JacksonRebounds9
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game113–121
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter113–121
- Q40.1Dillon Brooks makes 28-foot three point jumper (Aaron Holiday assists)113–121
- Q47.1Vince Williams Jr. makes free throw 2 of 2110–121
- Q47.1Vince Williams Jr. makes free throw 1 of 2110–120
- Q47.1Nate Hinton shooting foul110–119
- Q425.1Lamar Stevens defensive rebound110–119
- Q429.0Dillon Brooks misses 26-foot step back jumpshot110–119
- Q433.1Jaren Jackson Jr. personal foul110–119
- Q438.1Lamar Stevens makes free throw 2 of 2110–119
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q33:56Jae'Sean Tate makes 27-foot three point jumper (Amen Thompson assists)HOU 74 – 75 MEM · HOU 35% → 45% +10HOU 35% → 45%+10 pts
- Q32:03Nate Hinton makes 27-foot three pointerHOU 79 – 80 MEM · HOU 34% → 45% +11HOU 34% → 45%+11 pts
- Q49:49Jaren Jackson Jr. makes 24-foot three pointer (Derrick Rose assists)HOU 88 – 90 MEM · MEM 47% → 60% +14MEM 47% → 60%+14 pts
- Q47:37Jaren Jackson Jr. makes 25-foot three point jumper (Ziaire Williams assists)HOU 92 – 95 MEM · MEM 51% → 66% +15MEM 51% → 66%+15 pts
- Q45:45Luke Kennard makes 2-foot two point shot (Jordan Goodwin assists)HOU 97 – 100 MEM · MEM 57% → 68% +11MEM 57% → 68%+11 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Grizzlies 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 49.4% of 342 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- MEM 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- HOU -0.5
- MEM 47%
- Fair odds
- MEM -111
- HOU +111 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- HOU 108.5 – 109.3 MEM
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | HOU | MEM | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1488 | 1423 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −33 | −24 | HOU: Weaker than its recent lineups · MEM: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | HOU +20 Elo | HOU 52.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MEM 53.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MEM 52.5% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| HOU | Stat | MEM |
|---|---|---|
| 22nd of 30113.3 | Points scored | 106.730th of 30 |
| 10th of 30112.6 | Points allowed | 113.112th of 30 |
| 16th of 30+0.8 | Margin | −6.425th of 30 |
| 24th of 30111.4 | Offense rating | 105.730th of 30 |
| 5th of 30110.6 | Defense rating | 112.010th of 30 |
| 13th of 30100.7 | Pace | 100.515th of 30 |
| 19th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 1–930th of 30 |
| 28th of 305–20 | Road vs home | 5–2027th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Rockets
−33 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Grizzlies
−24 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
HOU 3–0 MEM in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 3.