Houston Rockets at Atlanta Hawks, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors ATL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rockets- Jalen GreenPoints26
- Jalen GreenAssists10
- Jalen GreenRebounds14
Hawks- Dejounte MurrayPoints34
- Trae YoungAssists8
- Onyeka OkongwuRebounds7
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game113–122
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter113–122
- Q419.1Jalen Johnson defensive rebound113–122
- Q422.2Jalen Green misses 26-foot three point pullup jump shot113–122
- Q426.0Saddiq Bey makes dunk113–122
- Q426.0Saddiq Bey offensive rebound113–120
- Q427.1Dejounte Murray misses 22-foot step back jumpshot113–120
- Q436.1Onyeka Okongwu offensive rebound113–120
- Q439.1Dejounte Murray misses two point shot113–120
- Q457.0Jalen Green lost ball turnover (Trae Young steals)113–120
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q24:35Jalen Johnson makes 28-foot three point jumperHOU 42 – 43 ATL · ATL 57% → 64% +8ATL 57% → 64%+8 pts
- Q47:51Jeff Green makes 23-foot three point jumper (Jalen Green assists)HOU 95 – 101 ATL · HOU 9% → 18% +8HOU 9% → 18%+8 pts
- Q47:33Saddiq Bey makes 23-foot three point jumper (Dejounte Murray assists)HOU 95 – 104 ATL · ATL 83% → 91% +8ATL 83% → 91%+8 pts
- Q43:20Dillon Brooks makes 25-foot three point jumper (Jalen Green assists)HOU 107 – 111 ATL · HOU 7% → 19% +12HOU 7% → 19%+12 pts
- Q43:06Dejounte Murray makes driving layupHOU 107 – 113 ATL · ATL 82% → 91% +9ATL 82% → 91%+9 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Hawks 65%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 65.2% of 388 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- ATL 65%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ATL -2.5
- ATL 61%
- Fair odds
- ATL -188
- HOU +188 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- HOU 118.7 – 123.5 ATL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | HOU | ATL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1488 | 1439 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | −40 | ATL and HOU on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | −70 | +19 | HOU: Weaker than its recent lineups · ATL: Missing Clint Capela −10 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | ATL +76 Elo | ATL 60.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATL 65.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATL 65.3% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| HOU | Stat | ATL |
|---|---|---|
| 21st of 30113.5 | Points scored | 121.73rd of 30 |
| 9th of 30112.6 | Points allowed | 123.929th of 30 |
| 14th of 30+0.9 | Margin | −2.323rd of 30 |
| 23rd of 30111.5 | Offense rating | 116.77th of 30 |
| 5th of 30110.6 | Defense rating | 118.929th of 30 |
| 14th of 30100.7 | Pace | 103.53rd of 30 |
| 23rd of 303–7 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 30 |
| 27th of 305–19 | Road vs home | 12–1422nd of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Rockets
−70 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Hawks
+19 Elo- Clint Capela left adductor strain−10 Elo
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
HOU 0–1 ATL in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.