Atlanta Hawks at Philadelphia 76ers, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors PHI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Hawks- Trae YoungPoints37
- Trae YoungAssists12
- Saddiq BeyRebounds11
76ers- Kelly Oubre Jr.Points28
- Tobias HarrisAssists7
- Paul ReedRebounds13
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game127–121
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter127–121
- Q41.1Saddiq Bey makes free throw 2 of 2127–121
- Q41.1Saddiq Bey makes free throw 1 of 2126–121
- Q41.1Terquavion Smith enters the game for Paul Reed125–121
- Q41.1Paul Reed personal take foul125–121
- Q43.1Hawks Full timeout125–121
- Q43.1Buddy Hield makes two point shot125–121
- Q43.1Buddy Hield offensive rebound125–119
- Q45.1Jalen Johnson blocks Tobias Harris 's 26-foot step back jumpshot125–119
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q16:19Tobias Harris makes 23-foot three point jumper (Paul Reed assists)ATL 16 – 15 PHI · PHI 44% → 50% +7PHI 44% → 50%+7 pts
- Q13:42Garrison Mathews makes 26-foot three point jumper (Trent Forrest assists)ATL 25 – 19 PHI · ATL 55% → 61% +7ATL 55% → 61%+7 pts
- Q12:23Terquavion Smith makes 28-foot three point jumper (Buddy Hield assists)ATL 29 – 23 PHI · PHI 32% → 38% +6PHI 32% → 38%+6 pts
- Q48:46Cameron Payne makes 27-foot running pullup jump shot (Buddy Hield assists)ATL 109 – 100 PHI · PHI 8% → 14% +7PHI 8% → 14%+7 pts
- Q43:50Tobias Harris makes two point shotATL 117 – 111 PHI · PHI 7% → 14% +7PHI 7% → 14%+7 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
76ers 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 49.4% of 342 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI -0.5
- PHI 52%
- Fair odds
- PHI -111
- ATL +111 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ATL 121.7 – 122.5 PHI
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ATL | PHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1431 | 1469 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −8 | −67 | ATL: Missing Dejounte Murray −16 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups · PHI: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +15 Elo | PHI 52.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 52.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 52.5% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| ATL | Stat | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd of 30121.5 | Points scored | 118.58th of 30 |
| 30th of 30124.0 | Points allowed | 113.714th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30−2.4 | Margin | +4.87th of 30 |
| 9th of 30116.5 | Offense rating | 117.07th of 30 |
| 28th of 30118.9 | Defense rating | 112.310th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30103.5 | Pace | 100.714th of 30 |
| 17th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 3–723rd of 30 |
| 20th of 309–15 | Road vs home | 17–912th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Hawks
−8 Elo- Dejounte Murray lower back tightness−16 Elo
76ers
−67 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
ATL 1–2 PHI in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 3.