Brooklyn Nets at Philadelphia 76ers, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors PHI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Nets- Cam ThomasPoints40
- Spencer DinwiddieAssists6
- Nic ClaxtonRebounds15
76ers- Tyrese MaxeyPoints23
- Patrick BeverleyAssists9
- Mo BambaRebounds6
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game136–121
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter136–121
- Q411.1shot clock turnover136–121
- Q424.0Cameron Johnson offensive rebound136–121
- Q427.1Cam Thomas misses 28-foot three point pullup jump shot136–121
- Q449.2Trendon Watford defensive rebound136–121
- Q452.0KJ Martin misses 24-foot three point jumper136–121
- Q41:01Trendon Watford makes driving layup136–121
- Q41:14Jaden Springer makes dunk (Terquavion Smith assists)134–121
- Q41:15Furkan Korkmaz defensive rebound134–119
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q111:07Mikal Bridges makes 26-foot three pointer (Cam Thomas assists)BKN 5 – 0 PHI · BKN 58% → 64% +6BKN 58% → 64%+6 pts
- Q16:35Royce O'Neale makes 27-foot three point shot (Ben Simmons assists)BKN 14 – 8 PHI · BKN 60% → 66% +6BKN 60% → 66%+6 pts
- Q16:12Cam Thomas makes 25-foot running pullup jump shot (Ben Simmons assists)BKN 17 – 8 PHI · BKN 66% → 72% +6BKN 66% → 72%+6 pts
- Q13:56Cameron Johnson makes 28-foot three point jumper (Royce O'Neale assists)BKN 24 – 14 PHI · BKN 66% → 74% +8BKN 66% → 74%+8 pts
- Q13:07Lonnie Walker IV makes 23-foot three point jumper (Mikal Bridges assists)BKN 27 – 16 PHI · BKN 71% → 76% +6BKN 71% → 76%+6 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Nets 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 49.4% of 342 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- BKN 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BKN -2
- BKN 57%
- Fair odds
- BKN -116
- PHI +116 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BKN 115.3 – 114.2 PHI
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BKN | PHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1484 | 1511 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +20 | −71 | BKN: Stronger than its recent lineups · PHI: Missing Tobias Harris −28 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | — | −24 | PHI crossed 2 time zones heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | BKN +52 Elo | BKN 57.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BKN 53.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BKN 53.6% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| BKN | Stat | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| 20th of 30114.2 | Points scored | 119.16th of 30 |
| 16th of 30115.3 | Points allowed | 112.813th of 30 |
| 20th of 30−1.1 | Margin | +6.34th of 30 |
| 17th of 30113.6 | Offense rating | 117.66th of 30 |
| 18th of 30114.8 | Defense rating | 111.59th of 30 |
| 22nd of 3099.8 | Pace | 100.714th of 30 |
| 24th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 6–48th of 30 |
| 21st of 307–14 | Road vs home | 17–68th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Nets
+20 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
76ers
−71 Elo- Tobias Harris injury/illness−28 Elo
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
BKN 0–1 PHI in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.