Dallas Mavericks at Philadelphia 76ers, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors PHI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mavericks- Kyrie IrvingPoints23
- Kyrie IrvingAssists8
- Luka DoncicRebounds8
76ers- Kelly Oubre Jr.Points19
- Tyrese MaxeyAssists7
- Mo BambaRebounds10
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game118–102
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter118–102
- Q413.1shot clock turnover118–102
- Q437.1Ricky Council IV makes two point shot118–102
- Q443.1Jaden Hardy lost ball turnover (Terquavion Smith steals)118–100
- Q458.2KJ Martin makes dunk (Jaden Springer assists)118–100
- Q41:02Jaden Springer defensive rebound118–98
- Q41:05Brandon Williams misses 26-foot three point jumper118–98
- Q41:22Jaden Springer makes dunk118–98
- Q41:25Furkan Korkmaz defensive rebound118–96
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q311:10Josh Green makes 23-foot three point jumper (Kyrie Irving assists)DAL 56 – 59 PHI · DAL 31% → 40% +8DAL 31% → 40%+8 pts
- Q37:18Kelly Oubre Jr. makes 27-foot three point jumper (Tyrese Maxey assists)DAL 65 – 68 PHI · PHI 51% → 61% +10PHI 51% → 61%+10 pts
- Q33:57Luka Doncic makes 27-foot three pointerDAL 72 – 70 PHI · DAL 45% → 56% +11DAL 45% → 56%+11 pts
- Q411:39Kyrie Irving makes 25-foot three point jumper (Maxi Kleber assists)DAL 80 – 74 PHI · DAL 62% → 73% +11DAL 62% → 73%+11 pts
- Q410:17Tobias Harris makes 23-foot three point jumper (Tyrese Maxey assists)DAL 82 – 77 PHI · PHI 19% → 29% +10PHI 19% → 29%+10 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
76ers 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 49.4% of 342 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI -1.5
- PHI 55%
- Fair odds
- PHI -108
- DAL +108 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DAL 119.6 – 120.2 PHI
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DAL | PHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1455 | 1500 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +5 | −50 | DAL: Stronger than its recent lineups · PHI: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −12 | — | DAL crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | PHI +38 Elo | PHI 55.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 51.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 51.9% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| DAL | Stat | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| 9th of 30118.2 | Points scored | 119.16th of 30 |
| 21st of 30118.8 | Points allowed | 113.314th of 30 |
| 17th of 30−0.6 | Margin | +5.85th of 30 |
| 12th of 30115.7 | Offense rating | 117.76th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30116.3 | Defense rating | 111.99th of 30 |
| 8th of 30102.1 | Pace | 100.715th of 30 |
| 23rd of 303–7 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 30 |
| 9th of 3012–10 | Road vs home | 17–79th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Mavericks
+5 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
76ers
−50 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.