Golden State Warriors at Philadelphia 76ers, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors PHI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Warriors- Andrew WigginsPoints21
- Jonathan KumingaAssists5
- Andrew WigginsRebounds10
76ers- Ricky Council IVPoints17
- Patrick BeverleyAssists5
- Paul ReedRebounds8
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game127–104
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter127–104
- Q411.2Warriors offensive team rebound127–104
- Q411.2Moses Moody misses 27-foot three point jumper127–104
- Q429.2Ricky Council IV makes free throw 1 of 1127–104
- Q429.2Dario Saric shooting foul127–103
- Q429.2Ricky Council IV makes driving layup (KJ Martin assists)127–103
- Q431.1KJ Martin offensive rebound127–101
- Q434.1Ricky Council IV misses 26-foot three point jumper127–101
- Q439.1Moses Moody makes layup127–101
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q27:38Lester Quinones makes 26-foot three point shot (Jonathan Kuminga assists)GS 30 – 29 PHI · GS 46% → 53% +8GS 46% → 53%+8 pts
- Q24:41Moses Moody makes 27-foot three point jumper (Lester Quinones assists)GS 38 – 34 PHI · GS 53% → 61% +8GS 53% → 61%+8 pts
- Q22:41Tyrese Maxey makes 27-foot step back jumpshotGS 42 – 43 PHI · PHI 44% → 52% +8PHI 44% → 52%+8 pts
- Q311:08Klay Thompson makes 28-foot three point jumper (Jonathan Kuminga assists)GS 53 – 45 PHI · GS 65% → 73% +8GS 65% → 73%+8 pts
- Q310:04Tyrese Maxey makes 24-foot three point jumperGS 55 – 48 PHI · PHI 22% → 29% +7PHI 22% → 29%+7 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Warriors 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 49.4% of 342 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- GS 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- GS -1.5
- GS 57%
- Fair odds
- GS -104
- PHI +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- GS 120.3 – 120.1 PHI
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | GS | PHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1512 | 1484 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +23 | −31 | GS: Stronger than its recent lineups · PHI: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | GS +46 Elo | GS 56.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | GS 50.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | GS 50.9% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| GS | Stat | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| 8th of 30118.7 | Points scored | 118.87th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30118.4 | Points allowed | 113.414th of 30 |
| 16th of 30+0.3 | Margin | +5.46th of 30 |
| 13th of 30115.7 | Offense rating | 117.46th of 30 |
| 20th of 30115.3 | Defense rating | 112.110th of 30 |
| 11th of 30101.2 | Pace | 100.715th of 30 |
| 10th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 4–618th of 30 |
| 17th of 309–12 | Road vs home | 17–810th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Warriors
+23 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
76ers
−31 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
GS 1–0 PHI in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.