Golden State Warriors at Brooklyn Nets, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors BKN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Warriors- Stephen CurryPoints29
- Draymond GreenAssists7
- Brandin PodziemskiRebounds11
Nets- Cam ThomasPoints18
- Dennis Smith Jr.Assists5
- Cameron JohnsonRebounds8
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game109–98
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter109–98
- Q44.0Jonathan Kuminga defensive rebound109–98
- Q46.0Dennis Smith Jr. misses driving layup109–98
- Q420.0Jonathan Kuminga makes dunk (Brandin Podziemski assists)109–98
- Q433.0Mikal Bridges makes driving layup (Spencer Dinwiddie assists)107–98
- Q440.1Gui Santos makes free throw 2 of 2107–96
- Q440.1Gui Santos makes free throw 1 of 2106–96
- Q440.1Lonnie Walker IV enters the game for Cam Thomas105–96
- Q440.1Cam Thomas personal foul105–96
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q37:21Spencer Dinwiddie makes 23-foot three point jumper (Mikal Bridges assists)GS 58 – 61 BKN · BKN 50% → 60% +10BKN 50% → 60%+10 pts
- Q48:01Royce O'Neale makes 23-foot three point jumper (Dennis Smith Jr. assists)GS 82 – 77 BKN · BKN 15% → 26% +11BKN 15% → 26%+11 pts
- Q47:37Royce O'Neale makes 30-foot three point jumper (Dennis Smith Jr. assists)GS 84 – 80 BKN · BKN 18% → 30% +12BKN 18% → 30%+12 pts
- Q46:21Stephen Curry makes 28-foot step back jumpshotGS 89 – 80 BKN · GS 81% → 90% +10GS 81% → 90%+10 pts
- Q42:49Jonathan Kuminga makes dunk (Draymond Green assists)GS 98 – 92 BKN · GS 81% → 90% +10GS 81% → 90%+10 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Warriors 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 49.4% of 342 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- GS 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BKN -0.5
- GS 48%
- Fair odds
- GS -101
- BKN +101 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- GS 120.0 – 120.0 BKN
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | GS | BKN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1500 | 1495 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +44 | +25 | GS: Stronger than its recent lineups · BKN: Missing Day'Ron Sharpe −10 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | BKN +13 Elo | BKN 51.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | GS 50.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | GS 50.2% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| GS | Stat | BKN |
|---|---|---|
| 6th of 30119.0 | Points scored | 114.619th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30118.8 | Points allowed | 115.416th of 30 |
| 16th of 30+0.1 | Margin | −0.819th of 30 |
| 12th of 30115.8 | Offense rating | 114.017th of 30 |
| 21st of 30115.7 | Defense rating | 114.818th of 30 |
| 11th of 30101.2 | Pace | 99.923rd of 30 |
| 16th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 4–616th of 30 |
| 18th of 308–12 | Road vs home | 12–1322nd of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Warriors
+44 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Nets
+25 Elo- Day'Ron Sharpe left knee injury−10 Elo
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
GS 1–0 BKN in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.