Houston Rockets at Toronto Raptors, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors TOR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rockets- Dillon BrooksPoints20
- Aaron HolidayAssists5
- Jabari Smith Jr.Rebounds10
Raptors- Immanuel QuickleyPoints25
- Scottie BarnesAssists8
- Jakob PoeltlRebounds13
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game104–107
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter104–107
- Q40.0Rockets offensive team rebound104–107
- Q40.0Jeff Green misses 23-foot three point shot104–107
- Q42.0Rockets Full timeout104–107
- Q42.2Amen Thompson offensive rebound104–107
- Q45.1Aaron Holiday misses 27-foot three point jumper104–107
- Q418.2RJ Barrett makes free throw 2 of 2104–107
- Q418.2RJ Barrett makes free throw 1 of 2104–106
- Q418.2Amen Thompson personal foul104–105
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q25:11Gary Trent Jr. makes 26-foot three point jumper (RJ Barrett assists)HOU 44 – 50 TOR · TOR 55% → 63% +8TOR 55% → 63%+8 pts
- Q44:35Dillon Brooks makes 29-foot three point jumper (Jabari Smith Jr. assists)HOU 95 – 100 TOR · HOU 9% → 21% +11HOU 9% → 21%+11 pts
- Q44:02Scottie Barnes makes two point shotHOU 95 – 102 TOR · TOR 81% → 89% +8TOR 81% → 89%+8 pts
- Q423.1Dillon Brooks makes 27-foot three point jumper (Jeff Green assists)HOU 104 – 105 TOR · HOU 1% → 28% +27HOU 1% → 28%+27 pts
- Q418.2RJ Barrett makes free throw 1 of 2HOU 104 – 106 TOR · TOR 74% → 90% +16TOR 74% → 90%+16 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Rockets 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 49.4% of 342 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- HOU 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- HOU -1.5
- HOU 57%
- Fair odds
- HOU -115
- TOR +115 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- HOU 117.7 – 116.7 TOR
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | HOU | TOR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1495 | 1424 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −12 | −25 | HOU: Weaker than its recent lineups · TOR: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | HOU +48 Elo | HOU 56.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | HOU 53.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | HOU 53.4% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| HOU | Stat | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| 21st of 30113.7 | Points scored | 114.519th of 30 |
| 10th of 30112.7 | Points allowed | 117.719th of 30 |
| 14th of 30+1.0 | Margin | −3.324th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30111.7 | Offense rating | 113.019th of 30 |
| 5th of 30110.7 | Defense rating | 116.323rd of 30 |
| 13th of 30100.8 | Pace | 100.317th of 30 |
| 18th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 2–826th of 30 |
| 26th of 305–18 | Road vs home | 10–1323rd of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Rockets
−12 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Raptors
−25 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
HOU 1–0 TOR in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.