Houston Rockets at Indiana Pacers, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors IND; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rockets- Jalen GreenPoints30
- Alperen SengunAssists6
- Amen ThompsonRebounds13
Pacers- Pascal SiakamPoints29
- Tyrese HaliburtonAssists7
- Pascal SiakamRebounds4
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game129–132
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter129–132
- Q46.1Alperen Sengun makes tip shot129–132
- Q46.1Alperen Sengun offensive rebound127–132
- Q49.1Dillon Brooks misses 26-foot three point jumper127–132
- Q49.1Jabari Smith Jr. offensive rebound127–132
- Q413.1Dillon Brooks misses 26-foot three point jumper127–132
- Q414.1Alperen Sengun offensive rebound127–132
- Q417.1Jabari Smith Jr. misses 24-foot three point pullup jump shot127–132
- Q421.0Alperen Sengun enters the game for Jeff Green127–132
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q36:36Dillon Brooks makes 25-foot three point jumper (Amen Thompson assists)HOU 92 – 86 IND · HOU 47% → 57% +10HOU 47% → 57%+10 pts
- Q35:45Tyrese Haliburton makes 27-foot three point shot (Pascal Siakam assists)HOU 94 – 89 IND · IND 35% → 45% +10IND 35% → 45%+10 pts
- Q35:09Pascal Siakam makes 22-foot three point jumper (Myles Turner assists)HOU 96 – 92 IND · IND 38% → 48% +10IND 38% → 48%+10 pts
- Q32:08Buddy Hield makes 26-foot three point shot (Pascal Siakam assists)HOU 98 – 100 IND · IND 57% → 68% +11IND 57% → 68%+11 pts
- Q446.0Jalen Green makes 25-foot three pointerHOU 127 – 130 IND · HOU <1% → 10% +9HOU <1% → 10%+9 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Pacers 69%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 65.2% of 388 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- IND 69%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- IND -5.5
- IND 71%
- Fair odds
- IND -226
- HOU +226 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- HOU 116.4 – 122.6 IND
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | HOU | IND | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1498 | 1526 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −18 | +58 | HOU: Weaker than its recent lineups · IND: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −12 | — | HOU crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | IND +153 Elo | IND 70.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | IND 69.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | IND 69.3% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| HOU | Stat | IND |
|---|---|---|
| 21st of 30113.4 | Points scored | 123.91st of 30 |
| 8th of 30112.3 | Points allowed | 122.428th of 30 |
| 13th of 30+1.1 | Margin | +1.512th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30111.3 | Offense rating | 118.54th of 30 |
| 5th of 30110.3 | Defense rating | 117.126th of 30 |
| 14th of 30100.8 | Pace | 104.62nd of 30 |
| 17th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 4–617th of 30 |
| 26th of 305–17 | Road vs home | 16–1015th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Rockets
−18 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Pacers
+58 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
HOU 0–1 IND in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.