New York Knicks at Houston Rockets, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors HOU; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Knicks- Jalen BrunsonPoints27
- Jalen BrunsonAssists7
- Precious AchiuwaRebounds17
Rockets- Dillon BrooksPoints23
- Alperen SengunAssists6
- Amen ThompsonRebounds13
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game103–105
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter103–105
- Q40.0(00:00) [Knicks] REF-INITIATED REVIEW (REPLAY SUPPORTS CALL)103–105
- Q40.0Josh Hart defensive rebound103–105
- Q40.1Aaron Holiday misses free throw 3 of 3103–105
- Q40.1Aaron Holiday makes free throw 2 of 3103–105
- Q40.1Aaron Holiday makes free throw 1 of 3103–104
- Q40.1(00:00.3) [Knicks] REF-INITIATED REVIEW (CALL STANDS)103–103
- Q40.1Jalen Brunson shooting foul103–103
- Q41.0Aaron Holiday offensive rebound103–103
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q43:03Josh Hart makes 26-foot three point jumper (Jalen Brunson assists)NY 96 – 98 HOU · NY 16% → 36% +20NY 16% → 36%+20 pts
- Q42:09Dillon Brooks makes 22-foot three point jumper (Amen Thompson assists)NY 96 – 101 HOU · HOU 67% → 88% +21HOU 67% → 88%+21 pts
- Q41:43Alec Burks makes 23-foot three point jumper (Josh Hart assists)NY 99 – 101 HOU · NY 9% → 30% +21NY 9% → 30%+21 pts
- Q48.1Jalen Brunson makes 14-foot step back jumpshotNY 103 – 103 HOU · NY 3% → 50% +48NY 3% → 50%+48 pts
- Q40.1Aaron Holiday makes free throw 1 of 3NY 103 – 104 HOU · HOU 50% → 100% +50HOU 50% → 100%+50 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Knicks 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- NY 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NY -3.5
- NY 64%
- Fair odds
- NY -138
- HOU +138 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NY 112.4 – 109.9 HOU
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NY | HOU | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1603 | 1481 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −19 | −35 | NY: Missing Isaiah Hartenstein −13 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups · HOU: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | NY +102 Elo | NY 64.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NY 57.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NY 58.0% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| NY | Stat | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| 16th of 30115.0 | Points scored | 113.521st of 30 |
| 3rd of 30109.9 | Points allowed | 112.810th of 30 |
| 6th of 30+5.1 | Margin | +0.716th of 30 |
| 11th of 30116.3 | Offense rating | 111.423rd of 30 |
| 6th of 30111.1 | Defense rating | 110.75th of 30 |
| 27th of 3098.9 | Pace | 100.913th of 30 |
| 4th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 3–723rd of 30 |
| 10th of 3014–12 | Road vs home | 18–910th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Knicks
−19 Elo- Isaiah Hartenstein injury/illness−13 Elo
Rockets
−35 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
NY 1–0 HOU in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.