Indiana Pacers at New York Knicks, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NY; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pacers- Myles TurnerPoints23
- Tyrese HaliburtonAssists12
- Myles TurnerRebounds8
Knicks- Jalen BrunsonPoints39
- Josh HartAssists5
- Josh HartRebounds10
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game125–111
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter125–111
- Q46.1shot clock turnover125–111
- Q429.1Pascal Siakam defensive rebound125–111
- Q431.1Alec Burks misses 22-foot three point jumper125–111
- Q438.1Tyrese Haliburton makes 5-foot two point shot (Andrew Nembhard assists)125–111
- Q41:00Jalen Brunson makes 11-foot pullup jump shot123–111
- Q41:12Myles Turner makes 1-foot dunk (Andrew Nembhard assists)123–109
- Q41:32Jalen Brunson makes free throw 2 of 2121–109
- Q41:32Jalen Brunson makes free throw 1 of 2121–108
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q311:09Myles Turner makes 25-foot three point jumper (Tyrese Haliburton assists)IND 64 – 60 NY · IND 47% → 56% +9IND 47% → 56%+9 pts
- Q38:11Pascal Siakam makes 22-foot three point jumper (Tyrese Haliburton assists)IND 69 – 64 NY · IND 51% → 60% +9IND 51% → 60%+9 pts
- Q37:49Pascal Siakam makes 22-foot three point jumper (Tyrese Haliburton assists)IND 72 – 64 NY · IND 61% → 70% +9IND 61% → 70%+9 pts
- Q34:36Obi Toppin makes 23-foot three point jumper (Tyrese Haliburton assists)IND 79 – 70 NY · IND 66% → 75% +9IND 66% → 75%+9 pts
- Q30.1Tyrese Haliburton makes 30-foot step back jumpshotIND 91 – 82 NY · IND 70% → 80% +10IND 70% → 80%+10 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Knicks 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- NY 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NY -4
- NY 66%
- Fair odds
- NY -140
- IND +140 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- IND 116.0 – 118.6 NY
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | IND | NY | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1505 | 1622 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +29 | −7 | IND: Stronger than its recent lineups · NY: Missing Julius Randle −31 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | NY +117 Elo | NY 66.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NY 57.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NY 58.4% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| IND | Stat | NY |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 30123.8 | Points scored | 115.115th of 30 |
| 28th of 30122.7 | Points allowed | 109.63rd of 30 |
| 13th of 30+1.1 | Margin | +5.56th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30118.5 | Offense rating | 116.411th of 30 |
| 26th of 30117.4 | Defense rating | 110.86th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30104.5 | Pace | 98.927th of 30 |
| 14th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 8–22nd of 30 |
| 14th of 3012–13 | Road vs home | 19–78th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Pacers
+29 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Knicks
−7 Elo- Julius Randle dislocated right shoulder−31 Elo
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
IND 1–1 NY in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 2.