Golden State Warriors at Indiana Pacers, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors IND; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Warriors- Stephen CurryPoints42
- Brandin PodziemskiAssists7
- Gui SantosRebounds8
Pacers- Pascal SiakamPoints16
- Tyrese HaliburtonAssists11
- Pascal SiakamRebounds8
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game131–109
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter131–109
- Q417.0Trayce Jackson-Davis turnover131–109
- Q417.0Trayce Jackson-Davis offensive foul131–109
- Q429.1Ben Sheppard makes 22-foot three point jumper (Isaiah Jackson assists)131–109
- Q445.0Moses Moody makes 10-foot pullup jump shot131–106
- Q454.1Gui Santos defensive rebound129–106
- Q458.0Trayce Jackson-Davis blocks Isaiah Jackson 's 2-foot driving layup129–106
- Q41:10Trayce Jackson-Davis makes two point shot129–106
- Q41:10Trayce Jackson-Davis offensive rebound127–106
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q29:47Jalen Smith makes 24-foot three point jumper (T.J. McConnell assists)GS 47 – 43 IND · IND 45% → 52% +7IND 45% → 52%+7 pts
- Q26:47Dario Saric makes 22-foot three point jumper (Draymond Green assists)GS 54 – 48 IND · GS 46% → 54% +8GS 46% → 54%+8 pts
- Q26:31Myles Turner makes 25-foot three point jumper (T.J. McConnell assists)GS 54 – 51 IND · IND 46% → 54% +8IND 46% → 54%+8 pts
- Q25:16Stephen Curry makes 26-foot three point jumper (Dario Saric assists)GS 58 – 53 IND · GS 44% → 52% +8GS 44% → 52%+8 pts
- Q21:51Stephen Curry makes 27-foot three pointer (Andrew Wiggins assists)GS 68 – 58 IND · GS 59% → 67% +8GS 59% → 67%+8 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Pacers 64%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- IND 64%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- IND -3.5
- IND 63%
- Fair odds
- IND -177
- GS +177 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- GS 122.8 – 127.1 IND
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | GS | IND | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1527 | 1529 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | — | GS on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | +43 | +58 | GS: Stronger than its recent lineups · IND: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | IND +94 Elo | IND 63.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | IND 64.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | IND 63.9% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| GS | Stat | IND |
|---|---|---|
| 6th of 30118.9 | Points scored | 124.01st of 30 |
| 20th of 30118.1 | Points allowed | 122.528th of 30 |
| 14th of 30+0.8 | Margin | +1.512th of 30 |
| 13th of 30115.8 | Offense rating | 118.73rd of 30 |
| 19th of 30115.0 | Defense rating | 117.326th of 30 |
| 11th of 30101.3 | Pace | 104.52nd of 30 |
| 11th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 5–511th of 30 |
| 17th of 3010–12 | Road vs home | 17–1014th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Warriors
+43 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Pacers
+58 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.