Dallas Mavericks at New York Knicks, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NY; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mavericks- Luka DoncicPoints39
- Luka DoncicAssists11
- Luka DoncicRebounds8
Knicks- Donte DiVincenzoPoints36
- Josh HartAssists12
- Precious AchiuwaRebounds16
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game122–108
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter122–108
- Q413.2Dwight Powell defensive rebound122–108
- Q417.1Miles McBride misses 26-foot three point jumper122–108
- Q437.1Precious Achiuwa defensive rebound122–108
- Q439.1Brandon Williams misses free throw 2 of 2122–108
- Q439.1Brandon Williams makes free throw 1 of 2122–108
- Q439.1Taj Gibson shooting foul121–108
- Q453.1Miles McBride makes 26-foot step back jumpshot121–108
- Q41:04Precious Achiuwa defensive rebound121–105
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q25:42Donte DiVincenzo makes 25-foot three point jumper (Josh Hart assists)DAL 41 – 35 NY · NY 30% → 37% +7NY 30% → 37%+7 pts
- Q25:26Kyrie Irving makes 24-foot three point jumper (Luka Doncic assists)DAL 44 – 35 NY · DAL 63% → 70% +7DAL 63% → 70%+7 pts
- Q22:22Donte DiVincenzo makes 28-foot running pullup jump shot (Jacob Toppin assists)DAL 51 – 45 NY · NY 28% → 36% +8NY 28% → 36%+8 pts
- Q21:53Tim Hardaway Jr. makes 22-foot three point shot (Luka Doncic assists)DAL 54 – 45 NY · DAL 64% → 72% +8DAL 64% → 72%+8 pts
- Q21:21Derrick Jones Jr. makes 23-foot three point jumper (Luka Doncic assists)DAL 57 – 48 NY · DAL 64% → 72% +8DAL 64% → 72%+8 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Knicks 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 49.4% of 342 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- NY 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NY -4
- NY 66%
- Fair odds
- NY -114
- DAL +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DAL 114.7 – 115.7 NY
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DAL | NY | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1485 | 1641 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +55 | −20 | DAL: Stronger than its recent lineups · NY: Missing Jalen Brunson −64, Julius Randle −37, OG Anunoby −13 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | NY +117 Elo | NY 66.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NY 51.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NY 53.3% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| DAL | Stat | NY |
|---|---|---|
| 10th of 30118.2 | Points scored | 115.215th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30118.3 | Points allowed | 109.42nd of 30 |
| 17th of 300.0 | Margin | +5.85th of 30 |
| 13th of 30115.9 | Offense rating | 116.59th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30115.9 | Defense rating | 110.65th of 30 |
| 8th of 30102.0 | Pace | 98.927th of 30 |
| 17th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 9–11st of 30 |
| 6th of 3014–10 | Road vs home | 19–67th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Mavericks
+55 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Knicks
−20 Elo- Jalen Brunson injury/illness−64 Elo
- Julius Randle injury/illness−37 Elo
- OG Anunoby injury/illness−13 Elo
- Duane Washington Jr. injury/illness−1 Elo
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
DAL 1–0 NY in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.