Dallas Mavericks at Brooklyn Nets, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors BKN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mavericks- Kyrie IrvingPoints36
- Luka DoncicAssists9
- Luka DoncicRebounds18
Nets- Mikal BridgesPoints28
- Cam ThomasAssists8
- Nic ClaxtonRebounds11
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game119–107
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter119–107
- Q411.0shot clock turnover119–107
- Q433.1Grant Williams defensive rebound119–107
- Q437.1Spencer Dinwiddie misses running pullup jump shot119–107
- Q442.1Nic Claxton defensive rebound119–107
- Q444.1Luka Doncic misses free throw 2 of 2119–107
- Q444.1Luka Doncic makes free throw 1 of 2119–107
- Q444.1Nic Claxton personal take foul118–107
- Q456.0Grant Williams defensive rebound118–107
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q14:57Cam Thomas makes 25-foot three point jumper (Dennis Smith Jr. assists)DAL 19 – 17 BKN · BKN 39% → 45% +7BKN 39% → 45%+7 pts
- Q14:26Tim Hardaway Jr. makes 26-foot three point jumper (Luka Doncic assists)DAL 22 – 19 BKN · DAL 50% → 57% +7DAL 50% → 57%+7 pts
- Q13:34Royce O'Neale makes 23-foot three point jumper (Cam Thomas assists)DAL 24 – 24 BKN · BKN 43% → 50% +7BKN 43% → 50%+7 pts
- Q11:48Jaden Hardy makes 24-foot three point jumper (Luka Doncic assists)DAL 27 – 24 BKN · DAL 50% → 57% +7DAL 50% → 57%+7 pts
- Q44:57Kyrie Irving makes 26-foot three point jumperDAL 110 – 101 BKN · DAL 84% → 93% +9DAL 84% → 93%+9 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Mavericks 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 49.4% of 342 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- DAL 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BKN -1.5
- DAL 44%
- Fair odds
- DAL -102
- BKN +102 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DAL 117.7 – 117.5 BKN
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DAL | BKN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1471 | 1484 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | −40 | BKN and DAL on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | +14 | +9 | DAL: Stronger than its recent lineups · BKN: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | BKN +44 Elo | BKN 56.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DAL 51.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DAL 50.4% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| DAL | Stat | BKN |
|---|---|---|
| 10th of 30118.2 | Points scored | 114.319th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30118.5 | Points allowed | 115.316th of 30 |
| 17th of 30−0.3 | Margin | −1.019th of 30 |
| 12th of 30115.8 | Offense rating | 113.717th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30116.1 | Defense rating | 114.717th of 30 |
| 8th of 30102.0 | Pace | 99.924th of 30 |
| 18th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 4–618th of 30 |
| 7th of 3013–10 | Road vs home | 12–1422nd of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Mavericks
+14 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Nets
+9 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
DAL 1–0 BKN in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.