New Orleans Pelicans at Memphis Grizzlies, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MEM; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pelicans- Herbert JonesPoints17
- Brandon IngramAssists6
- Herbert JonesRebounds9
Grizzlies- Jaren Jackson Jr.Points22
- Vince Williams Jr.Assists9
- Lamar StevensRebounds7
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game96–87
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter96–87
- Q43.0shot clock turnover96–87
- Q423.0Larry Nance Jr. defensive rebound96–87
- Q427.1Jaren Jackson Jr. misses 6-foot two point shot96–87
- Q433.0Grizzlies Full timeout96–87
- Q433.0Larry Nance Jr. makes dunk (Brandon Ingram assists)96–87
- Q444.0Jaren Jackson Jr. personal take foul94–87
- Q447.0Herbert Jones offensive rebound94–87
- Q450.1CJ McCollum misses 25-foot three point jumper94–87
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q13:02Luke Kennard makes 25-foot three point jumper (Jaren Jackson Jr. assists)NO 16 – 23 MEM · MEM 51% → 58% +7MEM 51% → 58%+7 pts
- Q12:53Trey Murphy III makes 23-foot three point jumper (Brandon Ingram assists)NO 19 – 23 MEM · NO 42% → 49% +7NO 42% → 49%+7 pts
- Q12:16Jose Alvarado makes 25-foot three point jumper (Zion Williamson assists)NO 22 – 23 MEM · NO 49% → 56% +7NO 49% → 56%+7 pts
- Q26:17Brandon Ingram makes 25-foot three point jumper (Jonas Valanciunas assists)NO 43 – 39 MEM · NO 60% → 67% +7NO 60% → 67%+7 pts
- Q43:07Jaren Jackson Jr. makes dunk (Santi Aldama assists)NO 90 – 85 MEM · MEM 7% → 14% +7MEM 7% → 14%+7 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Pelicans 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- NO 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NO -5
- NO 68%
- Fair odds
- NO -146
- MEM +146 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NO 111.1 – 108.3 MEM
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NO | MEM | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1559 | 1429 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +59 | −4 | NO: Stronger than its recent lineups · MEM: Missing Derrick Rose −3 (from the box score) |
| Travel | −24 | — | NO crossed 2 time zones heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | NO +133 Elo | NO 68.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NO 58.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NO 59.4% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| NO | Stat | MEM |
|---|---|---|
| 14th of 30116.5 | Points scored | 107.130th of 30 |
| 9th of 30112.4 | Points allowed | 113.412th of 30 |
| 8th of 30+4.1 | Margin | −6.325th of 30 |
| 12th of 30116.0 | Offense rating | 106.030th of 30 |
| 8th of 30111.9 | Defense rating | 112.29th of 30 |
| 17th of 30100.3 | Pace | 100.615th of 30 |
| 7th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 2–828th of 30 |
| 9th of 3016–12 | Road vs home | 5–1927th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Pelicans
+59 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Grizzlies
−4 Elo- Derrick Rose injury/illness−3 Elo
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
NO 1–2 MEM in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 0 of 3.