New Orleans Pelicans at LA Clippers, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors LAC; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pelicans- CJ McCollumPoints25
- Zion WilliamsonAssists10
- Brandon IngramRebounds8
Clippers- James HardenPoints19
- James HardenAssists5
- James HardenRebounds8
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game117–106
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter117–106
- Q42.0shot clock turnover117–106
- Q415.0Jeremiah Robinson-Earl offensive rebound117–106
- Q418.0Jordan Hawkins misses 17-foot pullup jump shot117–106
- Q430.0Cody Zeller defensive rebound117–106
- Q433.1Brandon Boston Jr. misses 12-foot pullup jump shot117–106
- Q445.1Terance Mann defensive rebound117–106
- Q447.1Jeremiah Robinson-Earl misses 28-foot three point jumper117–106
- Q41:02Kobe Brown makes 22-foot three point jumper (Amir Coffey assists)117–106
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q37:28Herbert Jones makes 25-foot three point jumper (Zion Williamson assists)NO 62 – 54 LAC · NO 56% → 65% +9NO 56% → 65%+9 pts
- Q34:54CJ McCollum makes 25-foot three pointerNO 67 – 60 LAC · NO 54% → 65% +10NO 54% → 65%+10 pts
- Q411:23Amir Coffey makes 24-foot three point jumper (James Harden assists)NO 79 – 72 LAC · LAC 19% → 29% +10LAC 19% → 29%+10 pts
- Q49:58James Harden makes 26-foot three point jumper (Russell Westbrook assists)NO 84 – 80 LAC · LAC 27% → 39% +12LAC 27% → 39%+12 pts
- Q48:45Jose Alvarado makes 23-foot three point shot (CJ McCollum assists)NO 92 – 82 LAC · NO 75% → 85% +10NO 75% → 85%+10 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Clippers 66%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 65.2% of 388 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- LAC 66%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAC -5.5
- LAC 70%
- Fair odds
- LAC -192
- NO +192 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NO 113.8 – 118.7 LAC
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NO | LAC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1555 | 1641 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +66 | +93 | NO: Stronger than its recent lineups · LAC: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | LAC +149 Elo | LAC 70.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAC 65.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAC 65.8% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| NO | Stat | LAC |
|---|---|---|
| 13th of 30116.9 | Points scored | 118.87th of 30 |
| 9th of 30112.6 | Points allowed | 112.38th of 30 |
| 8th of 30+4.3 | Margin | +6.43rd of 30 |
| 11th of 30116.1 | Offense rating | 119.02nd of 30 |
| 8th of 30111.8 | Defense rating | 112.612th of 30 |
| 16th of 30100.5 | Pace | 99.625th of 30 |
| 10th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 9–11st of 30 |
| 8th of 3014–11 | Road vs home | 19–43rd of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Pelicans
+66 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Clippers
+93 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
NO 1–1 LAC in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 0 of 2.