New Orleans Pelicans at Portland Trail Blazers, NBA forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors POR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pelicans- Trey Murphy IIIPoints24
- Brandon IngramAssists9
- Jonas ValanciunasRebounds9
Trail Blazers- Jerami GrantPoints24
- Jerami GrantAssists4
- Deandre AytonRebounds17
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game93–84
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter93–84
- Q422.2Jerami Grant makes 29-foot three point jumper (Ashton Hagans assists)93–84
- Q431.0Herbert Jones makes 22-foot pullup jump shot (CJ McCollum assists)93–81
- Q455.0Jabari Walker makes 1-foot layup (Ashton Hagans assists)91–81
- Q41:04Jerami Grant defensive rebound91–79
- Q41:06Trey Murphy III misses 23-foot three point jumper91–79
- Q41:29Trey Murphy III defensive rebound91–79
- Q41:32Matisse Thybulle misses 27-foot three point pullup jump shot91–79
- Q41:38Brandon Ingram makes two point shot91–79
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q34:41Toumani Camara makes three point jumper (Dalano Banton assists)NO 61 – 56 POR · POR 20% → 29% +8POR 20% → 29%+8 pts
- Q410:44Herbert Jones makes two point shotNO 66 – 63 POR · NO 58% → 67% +8NO 58% → 67%+8 pts
- Q49:08Jonas Valanciunas makes 4-foot two point shot (CJ McCollum assists)NO 70 – 66 POR · NO 63% → 72% +9NO 63% → 72%+9 pts
- Q48:23Naji Marshall makes 22-foot three point jumper (Jordan Hawkins assists)NO 73 – 66 POR · NO 72% → 83% +11NO 72% → 83%+11 pts
- Q47:02Naji Marshall makes 24-foot three point jumper (CJ McCollum assists)NO 78 – 70 POR · NO 78% → 88% +10NO 78% → 88%+10 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Pelicans 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- NO 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NO -4.5
- NO 68%
- Fair odds
- NO -140
- POR +140 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NO 114.4 – 111.9 POR
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NO | POR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1554 | 1404 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | — | NO on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | +29 | −29 | NO: Stronger than its recent lineups · POR: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | NO +131 Elo | NO 68.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NO 57.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NO 58.3% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| NO | Stat | POR |
|---|---|---|
| 13th of 30117.0 | Points scored | 108.628th of 30 |
| 11th of 30113.0 | Points allowed | 116.917th of 30 |
| 8th of 30+4.0 | Margin | −8.226th of 30 |
| 12th of 30116.2 | Offense rating | 107.429th of 30 |
| 8th of 30112.2 | Defense rating | 115.521st of 30 |
| 16th of 30100.5 | Pace | 99.820th of 30 |
| 16th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 3–723rd of 30 |
| 9th of 3015–12 | Road vs home | 9–1425th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Pelicans
+29 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Trail Blazers
−29 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.