Detroit Pistons at Portland Trail Blazers, NBA forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors POR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pistons- Jalen DurenPoints27
- Marcus SasserAssists11
- Jalen DurenRebounds22
Trail Blazers- Jerami GrantPoints49
- Matisse ThybulleAssists7
- Jabari WalkerRebounds11
Last plays
- OT0.0End of Game128–122
- OT0.0End of the 1st Overtime128–122
- OT0.1Toumani Camara defensive rebound128–122
- OT2.2Jalen Duren misses 31-foot three point shot128–122
- OT26.1Ausar Thompson defensive rebound128–122
- OT29.0Jabari Walker misses 25-foot three point jumper128–122
- OT38.1Jabari Walker defensive rebound128–122
- OT40.0Ausar Thompson misses layup128–122
- OT41.1Jalen Duren offensive rebound128–122
- OT43.1Jaden Ivey misses two point shot128–122
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q41:29Marcus Sasser makes 24-foot step back jumpshotDET 116 – 118 POR · DET 6% → 26% +20DET 6% → 26%+20 pts
- Q453.1Cade Cunningham makes 18-foot step back jumpshotDET 118 – 120 POR · DET 6% → 21% +15DET 6% → 21%+15 pts
- Q421.1Ausar Thompson makes 1-foot dunk (Marcus Sasser assists)DET 120 – 120 POR · DET 11% → 49% +38DET 11% → 49%+38 pts
- OT3:08Marcus Sasser makes 26-foot running pullup jump shot (Jaden Ivey assists)DET 124 – 122 POR · DET 39% → 63% +24DET 39% → 63%+24 pts
- OT1:47Jalen Duren makes dunkDET 126 – 122 POR · DET 68% → 85% +16DET 68% → 85%+16 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Trail Blazers 62%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- POR 62%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- POR -3
- POR 61%
- Fair odds
- POR -164
- DET +164 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DET 113.9 – 117.7 POR
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DET | POR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1363 | 1414 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | — | DET on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | +21 | −26 | DET: Stronger than its recent lineups · POR: Missing Duop Reath −9 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | POR +80 Elo | POR 61.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | POR 62.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | POR 62.2% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| DET | Stat | POR |
|---|---|---|
| 23rd of 30113.0 | Points scored | 108.429th of 30 |
| 27th of 30122.3 | Points allowed | 116.617th of 30 |
| 28th of 30−9.3 | Margin | −8.326th of 30 |
| 25th of 30110.1 | Offense rating | 107.329th of 30 |
| 29th of 30119.1 | Defense rating | 115.421st of 30 |
| 7th of 30102.2 | Pace | 99.922nd of 30 |
| 23rd of 303–7 | Last 10 | 4–617th of 30 |
| 30th of 303–20 | Road vs home | 9–1325th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Pistons
+21 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Trail Blazers
−26 Elo- Duop Reath injury/illness−9 Elo
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
DET 0–1 POR in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.