New Orleans Pelicans at Los Angeles Lakers, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors LAL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pelicans- Zion WilliamsonPoints30
- Brandon IngramAssists7
- Jonas ValanciunasRebounds10
Lakers- D'Angelo RussellPoints30
- LeBron JamesAssists14
- Jaxson HayesRebounds8
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game122–139
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter122–139
- Q413.1shot clock turnover122–139
- Q438.0Jordan Hawkins makes two point shot122–139
- Q441.1Christian Wood lost ball turnover (Jordan Hawkins steals)120–139
- Q456.2Jaxson Hayes defensive rebound120–139
- Q41:00Jordan Hawkins misses 25-foot three point shot120–139
- Q41:02Dyson Daniels defensive rebound120–139
- Q41:05Jalen Hood-Schifino misses driving floating jump shot120–139
- Q41:14Jalen Hood-Schifino defensive rebound120–139
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q210:05D'Angelo Russell makes 25-foot three pointerNO 44 – 47 LAL · LAL 47% → 54% +7LAL 47% → 54%+7 pts
- Q29:52Dyson Daniels makes 23-foot three point jumper (Zion Williamson assists)NO 47 – 47 LAL · NO 46% → 53% +7NO 46% → 53%+7 pts
- Q29:24D'Angelo Russell makes 26-foot three pointer (LeBron James assists)NO 47 – 52 LAL · LAL 52% → 59% +7LAL 52% → 59%+7 pts
- Q32:21Dyson Daniels makes 24-foot three point jumper (Brandon Ingram assists)NO 100 – 105 LAL · NO 24% → 33% +10NO 24% → 33%+10 pts
- Q355.1D'Angelo Russell makes 25-foot step back jumpshotNO 102 – 112 LAL · LAL 74% → 83% +9LAL 74% → 83%+9 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Pelicans 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 49.4% of 342 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- NO 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NO -2.5
- NO 61%
- Fair odds
- NO -116
- LAL +116 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NO 118.1 – 117.0 LAL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NO | LAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1573 | 1523 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | — | −40 | LAL on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | +68 | +44 | NO: Stronger than its recent lineups · LAL: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | NO +77 Elo | NO 60.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NO 52.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NO 53.6% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| NO | Stat | LAL |
|---|---|---|
| 13th of 30116.9 | Points scored | 116.214th of 30 |
| 9th of 30112.5 | Points allowed | 116.918th of 30 |
| 8th of 30+4.4 | Margin | −0.719th of 30 |
| 11th of 30116.1 | Offense rating | 112.321st of 30 |
| 8th of 30111.7 | Defense rating | 113.014th of 30 |
| 16th of 30100.4 | Pace | 102.76th of 30 |
| 9th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 6–49th of 30 |
| 7th of 3015–11 | Road vs home | 17–912th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Pelicans
+68 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Lakers
+44 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
NO 1–1 LAL in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.