Memphis Grizzlies at Charlotte Hornets, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CHA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Grizzlies- Jaren Jackson Jr.Points29
- Vince Williams Jr.Assists8
- John KoncharRebounds10
Hornets- Miles BridgesPoints25
- Vasilije MicicAssists9
- Grant WilliamsRebounds8
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game106–115
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter106–115
- Q411.0Hornets Full timeout106–115
- Q419.0John Konchar makes driving layup106–115
- Q421.1Cody Martin bad pass (John Konchar steals)104–115
- Q428.1Vince Williams Jr. makes 25-foot three pointer104–115
- Q437.1Miles Bridges makes 28-foot three pointer101–115
- Q454.0GG Jackson lost ball turnover (Miles Bridges steals)101–112
- Q41:12Grant Williams makes free throw 2 of 2101–112
- Q41:12Grant Williams makes free throw 1 of 2101–111
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q355.1Vasilije Micic makes 27-foot step back jumpshotMEM 74 – 83 CHA · CHA 64% → 74% +11CHA 64% → 74%+11 pts
- Q49:28GG Jackson makes 25-foot three point jumper (Jaren Jackson Jr. assists)MEM 81 – 88 CHA · MEM 17% → 27% +10MEM 17% → 27%+10 pts
- Q47:33Seth Curry makes 28-foot three point jumperMEM 83 – 93 CHA · CHA 77% → 87% +10CHA 77% → 87%+10 pts
- Q47:24Jaren Jackson Jr. makes 25-foot three point jumper (Santi Aldama assists)MEM 86 – 93 CHA · MEM 13% → 23% +10MEM 13% → 23%+10 pts
- Q44:25Vasilije Micic makes 22-foot three point jumper (Miles Bridges assists)MEM 92 – 101 CHA · CHA 81% → 92% +11CHA 81% → 92%+11 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Grizzlies 69%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 65.2% of 388 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- MEM 69%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MEM -7.5
- MEM 77%
- Fair odds
- MEM -220
- CHA +220 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MEM 111.9 – 105.9 CHA
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MEM | CHA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1447 | 1304 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | — | −40 | CHA on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | −9 | −69 | MEM: Weaker than its recent lineups · CHA: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −12 | −12 | MEM crossed 1 time zone and CHA crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | MEM +207 Elo | MEM 76.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MEM 67.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MEM 68.7% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| MEM | Stat | CHA |
|---|---|---|
| 30th of 30107.1 | Points scored | 108.229th of 30 |
| 12th of 30113.3 | Points allowed | 120.425th of 30 |
| 25th of 30−6.3 | Margin | −12.230th of 30 |
| 30th of 30106.0 | Offense rating | 107.928th of 30 |
| 8th of 30112.1 | Defense rating | 120.130th of 30 |
| 15th of 30100.6 | Pace | 99.823rd of 30 |
| 23rd of 303–7 | Last 10 | 0–1030th of 30 |
| 17th of 3013–15 | Road vs home | 5–2127th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Grizzlies
−9 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Hornets
−69 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.