Cleveland Cavaliers at Philadelphia 76ers, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors PHI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cavaliers- Jarrett AllenPoints24
- Darius GarlandAssists9
- Evan MobleyRebounds10
76ers- Tyrese MaxeyPoints24
- Tyrese MaxeyAssists5
- Paul ReedRebounds12
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game97–104
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter97–104
- Q410.0Tyrese Maxey defensive rebound97–104
- Q412.1Max Strus misses 27-foot three point jumper97–104
- Q414.1Cavaliers Full timeout97–104
- Q414.1Tyrese Maxey makes free throw 2 of 297–104
- Q414.1Tyrese Maxey makes free throw 1 of 297–103
- Q414.1Evan Mobley personal take foul97–102
- Q414.1Tyrese Maxey defensive rebound97–102
- Q417.0Darius Garland misses 25-foot three point jumper97–102
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q48:43Cameron Payne makes 26-foot three point jumper (Tyrese Maxey assists)CLE 76 – 81 PHI · PHI 55% → 68% +14PHI 55% → 68%+14 pts
- Q47:48Georges Niang makes 26-foot three point jumper (Caris LeVert assists)CLE 79 – 83 PHI · CLE 22% → 35% +13CLE 22% → 35%+13 pts
- Q45:20Georges Niang makes 23-foot three point shot (Darius Garland assists)CLE 85 – 90 PHI · CLE 13% → 25% +12CLE 13% → 25%+12 pts
- Q42:37Tyrese Maxey makes 26-foot step back jumpshotCLE 89 – 95 PHI · PHI 73% → 90% +17PHI 73% → 90%+17 pts
- Q41:25Tyrese Maxey makes 12-foot two point shotCLE 92 – 97 PHI · PHI 80% → 93% +12PHI 80% → 93%+12 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Cavaliers 62%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- CLE 62%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CLE -6.5
- CLE 73%
- Fair odds
- CLE -163
- PHI +163 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CLE 114.0 – 110.3 PHI
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CLE | PHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1618 | 1463 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | −40 | PHI and CLE on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | +25 | −32 | CLE: Stronger than its recent lineups · PHI: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | CLE +176 Elo | CLE 73.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CLE 60.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CLE 62.0% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| CLE | Stat | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| 15th of 30114.8 | Points scored | 117.910th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30109.3 | Points allowed | 113.914th of 30 |
| 4th of 30+5.4 | Margin | +4.18th of 30 |
| 15th of 30114.7 | Offense rating | 116.66th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30109.3 | Defense rating | 112.612th of 30 |
| 24th of 3099.5 | Pace | 100.714th of 30 |
| 2nd of 308–2 | Last 10 | 3–721st of 30 |
| 1st of 3017–8 | Road vs home | 17–1217th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Cavaliers
+25 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
76ers
−32 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
CLE 1–1 PHI in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 0 of 2.