Cleveland Cavaliers at Brooklyn Nets, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors BKN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cavaliers- Donovan MitchellPoints27
- Darius GarlandAssists7
- Evan MobleyRebounds12
Nets- Mikal BridgesPoints26
- Dennis Smith Jr.Assists7
- Nic ClaxtonRebounds7
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game118–91
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter118–91
- Q415.0shot clock turnover118–91
- Q433.2Craig Porter defensive rebound118–91
- Q440.0Damian Jones blocks Trendon Watford 's 4-foot driving layup118–91
- Q450.2Sam Merrill makes 26-foot three point jumper (Damian Jones assists)118–91
- Q41:32Georges Niang makes 7-foot two point shot115–91
- Q41:42Craig Porter misses shot113–91
- Q42:05Sam Merrill personal foul113–91
- Q42:05Noah Clowney offensive rebound113–91
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q19:07Jalen Wilson makes 25-foot three point jumper (Mikal Bridges assists)CLE 9 – 8 BKN · BKN 29% → 35% +6BKN 29% → 35%+6 pts
- Q18:55Donovan Mitchell makes 30-foot three point jumper (Darius Garland assists)CLE 12 – 8 BKN · CLE 65% → 71% +6CLE 65% → 71%+6 pts
- Q15:51Dean Wade makes 23-foot three point jumper (Jarrett Allen assists)CLE 17 – 12 BKN · CLE 66% → 72% +6CLE 66% → 72%+6 pts
- Q22:20Jalen Wilson makes 23-foot three point jumper (Dennis Smith Jr. assists)CLE 53 – 48 BKN · BKN 21% → 27% +7BKN 21% → 27%+7 pts
- Q21:14Mikal Bridges makes 22-foot three point jumper (Noah Clowney assists)CLE 57 – 51 BKN · BKN 19% → 25% +6BKN 19% → 25%+6 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Cavaliers 63%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- CLE 63%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CLE -5
- CLE 70%
- Fair odds
- CLE -171
- BKN +171 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CLE 112.9 – 108.9 BKN
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CLE | BKN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1628 | 1470 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | — | CLE on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | +96 | +35 | CLE: Stronger than its recent lineups · BKN: Missing Lonnie Walker IV −9 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | CLE +143 Elo | CLE 69.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CLE 62.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CLE 63.1% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| CLE | Stat | BKN |
|---|---|---|
| 17th of 30114.8 | Points scored | 114.120th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30109.6 | Points allowed | 115.416th of 30 |
| 6th of 30+5.2 | Margin | −1.220th of 30 |
| 16th of 30114.1 | Offense rating | 113.617th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30109.0 | Defense rating | 114.818th of 30 |
| 20th of 30100.0 | Pace | 99.923rd of 30 |
| 1st of 309–1 | Last 10 | 4–617th of 30 |
| 1st of 3015–8 | Road vs home | 12–1523rd of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Cavaliers
+96 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Nets
+35 Elo- Lonnie Walker IV injury/illness−9 Elo
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
CLE 2–0 BKN in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.