Orlando Magic at Cleveland Cavaliers, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CLE; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Magic- Moritz WagnerPoints22
- Cole AnthonyAssists6
- Moritz WagnerRebounds7
Cavaliers- Jarrett AllenPoints18
- Darius GarlandAssists10
- Jarrett AllenRebounds10
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game116–109
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter116–109
- Q49.15 second violation116–109
- Q49.1Anthony Black enters the game for Cole Anthony116–109
- Q49.1Jonathan Isaac enters the game for Moritz Wagner116–109
- Q49.1Sam Merrill enters the game for Isaac Okoro116–109
- Q49.1Darius Garland enters the game for Caris LeVert116–109
- Q49.1Cavaliers Full timeout116–109
- Q49.1Gary Harris makes free throw 2 of 2116–109
- Q49.1Gary Harris makes free throw 1 of 2115–109
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q23:23Darius Garland makes 25-foot three pointer (Max Strus assists)ORL 49 – 40 CLE · CLE 24% → 36% +12CLE 24% → 36%+12 pts
- Q34:05Georges Niang makes 23-foot three point jumper (Darius Garland assists)ORL 73 – 73 CLE · CLE 47% → 58% +11CLE 47% → 58%+11 pts
- Q31:16Joe Ingles makes 26-foot three point jumper (Cole Anthony assists)ORL 82 – 78 CLE · ORL 47% → 58% +12ORL 47% → 58%+12 pts
- Q411:18Cole Anthony makes 26-foot three point jumper (Anthony Black assists)ORL 89 – 82 CLE · ORL 60% → 72% +12ORL 60% → 72%+12 pts
- Q411:06Georges Niang makes 24-foot three pointer (Max Strus assists)ORL 89 – 85 CLE · CLE 28% → 40% +12CLE 28% → 40%+12 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Cavaliers 64%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- CLE 64%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CLE -5.5
- CLE 71%
- Fair odds
- CLE -175
- ORL +175 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ORL 105.9 – 110.2 CLE
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ORL | CLE | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1534 | 1632 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +6 | +26 | ORL: Stronger than its recent lineups · CLE: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | CLE +153 Elo | CLE 70.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CLE 62.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CLE 63.6% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| ORL | Stat | CLE |
|---|---|---|
| 26th of 30111.7 | Points scored | 114.915th of 30 |
| 7th of 30110.9 | Points allowed | 109.22nd of 30 |
| 15th of 30+0.9 | Margin | +5.74th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30111.4 | Offense rating | 114.715th of 30 |
| 4th of 30110.5 | Defense rating | 109.02nd of 30 |
| 25th of 3099.6 | Pace | 99.723rd of 30 |
| 4th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 9–11st of 30 |
| 18th of 3012–17 | Road vs home | 18–911th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Magic
+6 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Cavaliers
+26 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
ORL 1–2 CLE in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 3.