New York Knicks at Orlando Magic, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors ORL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Knicks- Jalen BrunsonPoints33
- Jalen BrunsonAssists6
- Precious AchiuwaRebounds14
Magic- Paolo BancheroPoints36
- Franz WagnerAssists6
- Paolo BancheroRebounds6
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game100–118
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter100–118
- Q412.2Chuma Okeke defensive rebound100–118
- Q415.1Miles McBride misses 24-foot three point pullup jump shot100–118
- Q421.0Jericho Sims defensive rebound100–118
- Q425.0Jett Howard misses 26-foot three point pullup jump shot100–118
- Q435.1Admiral Schofield defensive rebound100–118
- Q437.1Precious Achiuwa misses free throw 2 of 2100–118
- Q437.1Precious Achiuwa makes free throw 1 of 2100–118
- Q437.1Kevon Harris shooting foul99–118
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q29:21Joe Ingles makes 27-foot three point shot (Franz Wagner assists)NY 39 – 37 ORL · ORL 42% → 49% +7ORL 42% → 49%+7 pts
- Q25:15Alec Burks makes 25-foot three point jumper (Jalen Brunson assists)NY 44 – 49 ORL · NY 27% → 33% +7NY 27% → 33%+7 pts
- Q24:12Paolo Banchero makes 25-foot three pointerNY 47 – 54 ORL · ORL 64% → 71% +7ORL 64% → 71%+7 pts
- Q22:31Miles McBride makes 27-foot step back jumpshotNY 52 – 56 ORL · NY 28% → 36% +7NY 28% → 36%+7 pts
- Q22:01Paolo Banchero makes 26-foot jump bank shotNY 52 – 59 ORL · ORL 64% → 72% +8ORL 64% → 72%+8 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Magic 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 49.4% of 342 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- ORL 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NY -0.5
- ORL 47%
- Fair odds
- ORL -121
- NY +121 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NY 107.2 – 108.7 ORL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NY | ORL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1596 | 1517 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | — | −40 | ORL on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | −24 | +27 | NY: Missing Donte DiVincenzo −19, Isaiah Hartenstein −16 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups · ORL: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −12 | — | NY crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | NY +20 Elo | NY 52.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ORL 55.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ORL 54.7% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| NY | Stat | ORL |
|---|---|---|
| 16th of 30114.8 | Points scored | 111.626th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30109.8 | Points allowed | 111.17th of 30 |
| 6th of 30+5.0 | Margin | +0.616th of 30 |
| 10th of 30116.2 | Offense rating | 111.024th of 30 |
| 6th of 30111.2 | Defense rating | 110.54th of 30 |
| 27th of 3098.8 | Pace | 99.820th of 30 |
| 8th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 6–48th of 30 |
| 11th of 3014–13 | Road vs home | 17–77th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Knicks
−24 Elo- Donte DiVincenzo right hamstring strain−19 Elo
- Isaiah Hartenstein left achilles tendon−16 Elo
Magic
+27 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
NY 0–2 ORL in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.