Oklahoma City Thunder at Orlando Magic, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors ORL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Thunder- Jalen WilliamsPoints33
- Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderAssists5
- Chet HolmgrenRebounds9
Magic- Paolo BancheroPoints23
- Paolo BancheroAssists10
- Jalen SuggsRebounds7
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game127–113
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter127–113
- Q41.2shot clock turnover127–113
- Q426.0Anthony Black bad pass (Lindy Waters III steals)127–113
- Q437.1Cason Wallace makes 3-foot driving floating jump shot (Ousmane Dieng assists)127–113
- Q454.1Chuma Okeke makes 23-foot three point shot (Caleb Houstan assists)125–113
- Q459.1Caleb Houstan defensive rebound125–110
- Q41:02Cason Wallace misses running pullup jump shot125–110
- Q41:07Cason Wallace defensive rebound125–110
- Q41:11Jett Howard misses 28-foot three point jumper125–110
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q155.1Jaylin Williams makes 25-foot three point jumper (Kenrich Williams assists)OKC 31 – 30 ORL · OKC 45% → 52% +7OKC 45% → 52%+7 pts
- Q211:42Cason Wallace makes 22-foot three point jumper (Ousmane Dieng assists)OKC 34 – 32 ORL · OKC 47% → 55% +7OKC 47% → 55%+7 pts
- Q28:12Cole Anthony makes 24-foot three point jumper (Gary Harris assists)OKC 43 – 41 ORL · ORL 38% → 45% +7ORL 38% → 45%+7 pts
- Q22:45Jalen Suggs makes 27-foot three point jumper (Paolo Banchero assists)OKC 54 – 48 ORL · ORL 27% → 34% +7ORL 27% → 34%+7 pts
- Q411:11Jalen Williams makes 26-foot step back jumpshotOKC 95 – 84 ORL · OKC 81% → 88% +8OKC 81% → 88%+8 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Magic 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 49.4% of 342 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- ORL 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- OKC -0.5
- ORL 49%
- Fair odds
- ORL -101
- OKC +101 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- OKC 112.7 – 112.8 ORL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | OKC | ORL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1547 | 1530 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +48 | +10 | OKC: Stronger than its recent lineups · ORL: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −12 | — | OKC crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | OKC +8 Elo | OKC 51.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ORL 50.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ORL 50.3% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| OKC | Stat | ORL |
|---|---|---|
| 4th of 30120.7 | Points scored | 111.626th of 30 |
| 13th of 30113.6 | Points allowed | 110.84th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30+7.1 | Margin | +0.815th of 30 |
| 5th of 30118.1 | Offense rating | 111.024th of 30 |
| 7th of 30111.2 | Defense rating | 110.24th of 30 |
| 12th of 30101.3 | Pace | 99.723rd of 30 |
| 7th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 30 |
| 6th of 3015–11 | Road vs home | 17–67th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Thunder
+48 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Magic
+10 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
OKC 1–0 ORL in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.