Sacramento Kings at Oklahoma City Thunder, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors OKC; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Kings- Malik MonkPoints26
- Domantas SabonisAssists14
- Domantas SabonisRebounds11
Thunder- Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderPoints38
- Jalen WilliamsAssists9
- Luguentz DortRebounds9
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game113–127
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter113–127
- Q418.0Luguentz Dort defensive rebound113–127
- Q422.1Keon Ellis misses 26-foot three point pullup jump shot113–127
- Q427.1shot clock turnover113–127
- Q450.1Jalen Williams defensive rebound113–127
- Q453.2Domantas Sabonis misses 25-foot three point jumper113–127
- Q458.1Shai Gilgeous-Alexander makes free throw 2 of 2113–127
- Q458.1Shai Gilgeous-Alexander makes free throw 1 of 2113–126
- Q458.1Keon Ellis shooting foul113–125
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q11:43Davion Mitchell makes 22-foot three point jumper (Malik Monk assists)SAC 25 – 23 OKC · SAC 42% → 49% +7SAC 42% → 49%+7 pts
- Q39:49Josh Giddey makes 23-foot three point jumper (Shai Gilgeous-Alexander assists)SAC 63 – 72 OKC · OKC 72% → 79% +7OKC 72% → 79%+7 pts
- Q39:21Domantas Sabonis makes 27-foot three point jumper (Keegan Murray assists)SAC 66 – 72 OKC · SAC 21% → 28% +7SAC 21% → 28%+7 pts
- Q47:45Jalen Williams makes 25-foot step back jumpshotSAC 97 – 108 OKC · OKC 87% → 93% +7OKC 87% → 93%+7 pts
- Q47:05De'Aaron Fox makes 26-foot three point jumper (Domantas Sabonis assists)SAC 103 – 110 OKC · SAC 8% → 16% +8SAC 8% → 16%+8 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Thunder 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- OKC 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- OKC -2.5
- OKC 60%
- Fair odds
- OKC -131
- SAC +131 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SAC 118.9 – 121.0 OKC
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SAC | OKC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1498 | 1537 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | — | −40 | OKC on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | +29 | +38 | SAC: Stronger than its recent lineups · OKC: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −24 | — | SAC crossed 2 time zones heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | OKC +68 Elo | OKC 59.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | OKC 56.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | OKC 56.6% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| SAC | Stat | OKC |
|---|---|---|
| 8th of 30118.7 | Points scored | 120.64th of 30 |
| 21st of 30117.9 | Points allowed | 113.713th of 30 |
| 16th of 30+0.8 | Margin | +6.92nd of 30 |
| 14th of 30115.6 | Offense rating | 118.05th of 30 |
| 20th of 30114.8 | Defense rating | 111.27th of 30 |
| 10th of 30101.6 | Pace | 101.212th of 30 |
| 4th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 6–48th of 30 |
| 10th of 3015–12 | Road vs home | 20–66th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Kings
+29 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Thunder
+38 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
SAC 2–0 OKC in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 0 of 2.